Article image

Dobber Hockey Dobber Sports

Published on Thursday, July 16, 2015

43

Reads

0

Comments

July 16, 2015

Thoughts on Kesler, Oduya, Bournival, and why James Neal can rebound in fantasy next year. 

****

There isn’t anywhere else to start today’s Ramblings than the contract that the Anaheim Ducks just gave Ryan Kesler. For those that may have missed, Kesler was signed to a six-year extension totalling $41.25-million, or an average annual value of $6.875M. They now have Kesler, Ryan Getzlaf, and Corey Perry all locked up through the 2020-2021 season.

The initial reaction I had, and I think a lot of people had gathering from what I read on Twitter was, “huh?” Everyone remembers Kesler’s 40-goal several years ago, and that he did have back-to-back 70-point seasons. This is a player, however, who has failed to crack the 50 point mark in three straight 82-game seasons, and hasn’t surpassed the 25-goal mark in five straight 82-game seasons.

It’s not hard to see the logic of what Anaheim did here, though. This was a team that was one game away from a Stanley Cup Final appearance last year, and the team that beat them, Chicago, arguably got worse over the course of the offseason to date (welcome to cap hell, again). I have little doubt that management looks at this team and is thinking: with this group of players so close to a Cup Final, and the team that bounced us looking to be trending down, why break up this group? Why not keep the same players around, and try to make a run for a few years?

The thing is, Kesler had a year left on his current deal, and this extension doesn’t kick in until his Age 32 season. I can understand wanting to have happy players, and now Kesler knows he’ll likely be a Duck for the rest of his career. On the other hand, this was not a contract Anaheim had to get done now. What was the rush? Why not wait until a few months into the season?

The final thing is that this seems to be a team operating with an internal cap. Last year, they were at $64.8M, according to War On Ice. That was a little over $4M under the cap. This year? Way, way lower. After their salary dump that saw the likes of James Wisniewski get traded, Tomas Fleischmann let go, along with François Beauchemin (and other deals), this team sits at $54.7M for next year. That’s lower than the Arizona Coyotes (according to General Fanager). They will have a lot of RFAs to sign next year like Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen, John Gibson, and others, so that likely plays into it. But the team as it sits is the one they are going into next year with, it seems.

Kesler is the number-2 centre the team has been long searching for to play behind Ryan Getzlaf, and that’s what they’ll have for a long time now (Kesler was given a full no-trade clause, by the way). He will be 32-years old when the extension kicks in, and the rest of the core forwards aren’t getting younger. They still have to sign Jakob Silfverberg for next season, too. It just didn’t make sense to do this contract now, for this length, whether he’s worth the money or not.

****

As always on Thursdays, I will be opening a thread in the forums around noon eastern time for any and all fantasy hockey questions. Feel free to pop in, and non-fantasy hockey questions are welcome as well

****

In what seemed like a perfect fit after Trevor Daley was traded to Chicago in the package that got Patrick Sharp, the Dallas Stars signed left-shooting defenceman Johnny Oduya to a two-year deal with an average annual value of $3.75M.

There’s not much to not like about this one. I was surprised that Oduya only got two years, given his track record, but that’s a good gamble for the Stars. He can slot in nicely as a second pairing LHD, and brings the type of defensive stability to a defence corps that lacked it at times.

As far as fantasy goes, there’s not much to see here. He’s never racked points, and even going to an offensive powerhouse like Dallas should be won’t change that. This is a change of address that works out much better for the Dallas Stars than it does for fantasy owners.

I will say this about Dallas, they are building something nice. The only thing that kept them out of the playoffs last year was deplorable goaltending, and with Antti Niemi brought in, hopefully they can get even an average NHL season out of him and Kari Lehtonen. With just average goaltending, this is a playoff team, and I think one of the top four or five squads in the West.

Benn-Seguin-Nichushkin. Hoo boy this will be fun. 

****

Michael Bournival was given a type of “show me” contract from the Montreal Canadiens, amounting to a one-year, two-way deal. The only “show me” that Bournival will get is Michel Therrien showing him the door to the press box. Until that coach is gone, Bournival will not have a chance to flourish. It’s not often I feel bad for professional athletes, but Bournival is being unfairly treated by the Montreal coaching staff. I wrote about this elsewhere, and readers can read it here. Until something changes behind the bench, nothing will change for their young players.

****

I was asked a question last week in my weekly forum with regards to James Neal. I was fairly high on him last season, having him ranked just outside my top-40 players. Needless to say, that didn’t exactly pan out – in a standard ESPN roto league, he finished just outside the top-80 forwards. Yikes.

So what went wrong?

First, he was injured (again). In fact, over the last three seasons, he’s missed over 25-percent of his regular season games. Unless he’s playing with an elite centre (and he won’t be), that’s too much time to miss to really be fantasy relevant. A big part of fantasy value is pure accumulation and volume (hiya, Ryan Suter!), and missing more than 25-percent of the season will be very detrimental to that.

There are two schools of thought on that: he’s either injury prone, or he’s injury prone until he isn’t. Which is to say, either he keeps getting hurt, or that run will stop eventually. I put myself in the latter group, even though that might not be wise from time to time.

The second thing is, there really was some unlucky play. There’s a statistic called Individual Points Percentage, which is the rate at which a player tallies a point on goals scored on the ice at five-on-five (from Hockey Analysis). League leaders for forwards in a single season will be over 90-percent. The median will be around 69-70-percent. As you can imagine, the ones that are exceptionally high one year will crash the next year (e.g. Taylor Hall over the last two seasons, which explains, in part, his point per game drop). The guys at the lower end are either A) unskilled and habitually low (like Chris Neil), or B) unlucky. Milan Michalek went from 53-percent in 2013-2014 to 70-percent last season. His point per game mark went up over that year, despite actually getting over a minute less ice time per game.

James Neal’s rate was the worst among regular Nashville forwards last year at 54.9-percent (244th out of 262 forwards in the NHL). That would be the reason for his paltry 14 assists. If he’s over 70 games played next year, I have little doubt he gets to 25 goals, and cruises past the 20 assist mark. In other words, I think if Neal can be counted for 70 games next year, I’m banking on close to 50 points.

For the record, he also tallied a point on just 21.1-percent of power play goals he was on the ice for. The only forwards worse in the NHL last year were Mason Raymond and David Clarkson. Rebound incoming.  


Read Full Article on : July 16, 2015
0

Sports League Management

Start using it today
It's FREE!

Start

Popular Articles

article image