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Dobber Hockey Dobber Sports

Published on Thursday, July 23, 2015

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July 23, 2015

Looking at how goal scoring has changed in the NHL recently, and what that means for fantasy.

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I was going to talk about the need for a youth movement in the NHL, on the heels of an excellent article from Travis Yost of TSN. I was beaten to the punch in yesterday’s Ramblings by Steve Laidlaw, though that’s far from a bad thing. Steve does a very good job looking at some younger players that may be primed to take a leap in production, and I encourage the readers to click that link and read through if they have not yet.

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As always on Thursdays, I will have an open thread set up around lunchtime (EDT) in the Dobber Forums for readers to come in and ask any fantasy (or even non-fantasy) hockey question that comes to mind. It’s a good way to get answers that might require a bit more nuance than just 140 characters on Twitter, or a comment at the bottom of an article.

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For the bulk of this Ramblings then, I’m going to go through something that almost seems like an afterthought in fantasy, and that’s goal scoring.

Ok maybe it’s not exactly an afterthought, but there’s always a lot of chatter about peripherals like hits and face-offs and penalty minutes and on and on it goes. That’s a fair thing to do, after all, seeing as being at the top of your roto league in penalty minutes provides as many points as being at the top of the goals column. There’s more to it – goals beget power play points, shots, and plus/minus – but I see why it’s the case.

There is a need to look at what’s going on in goal scoring, though, because there is a shift going on in the NHL.

For four years now, goals per game per team has been relatively unchanged. Since the start of the 2011-2012 season, all four campaigns have been somewhere between 2.72 and 2.74 goals per game per team. The 2014-2015 season saw as many goals (2.73) as the 2011-2012 season (2.73). Goal scoring isn’t going down, but the distribution of goal scoring is still changing.

Here is what’s going on (it’s something I’ve glossed over before, but bear with me):

  • - In 2011-2012, 30 players cracked the 30 goal mark, and four players cracked 40.
  • - In 2013-2014, 21 players cracked the 30 goal mark, and three players cracked 40.
  • - In 2014-2015, 15 players cracked the 30 goal mark, and three players cracked 40.

The number of 30 goal scorers has been cut in half in just three years, despite there being just as many goals per game per team in 2011-2012 as there was last year. There are several reasons for this, but here’s a big one:

  • - In 2011-2012, 19 defencemen cracked the 10 goal mark, and four scored 15 or more.
  • - In 2013-2014, 28 defencemen cracked the 10 goal mark, and six scored 15 or more.
  • - In 2014-2015, 32 defencemen cracked the 10 goal mark, and 10 scored 15 or more.

The number of defencemen with at least 10 goals has increased nearly 40-percent while the number of d-men who scored 15 increased by a factor of 2.5. That’s an enormous shift in the allocation of goals and has a lot of fantasy hockey implications.

One implication of this shift in goals is that it emphasizes the peripherals I mentioned earlier for non-elite forwards. When you get to guys like Troy Brouwer, Joel Ward, Brock Nelson, etc, their shots, penalty minutes, or whatever peripherals are used in a fantasy league, become more important.

A second implication is that it places a greater emphasis on those 30+ goal scorers. This is high school economics: the less of a given good there is (30+ goal scorers) the higher the value is. Guys like Jamie Benn, Max Pacioretty, and Vladimir Tarasenko are more valuable now than they would have been four years ago. Also, looking for those breakout 30+ goal scorers like Nick Foligno and Sean Monahan becomes more important. Sometimes there’s no way to see it coming – Jiri Hudler?! – but that doesn’t lessen the importance of the search.

Lastly, it devalues the defencemen who rack up those goals. What’s the point of spending a second or third round pick for hopefully 20 goals from Shea Weber when you can wait a few rounds and grab Justin Faulk or John Carlson? More similar defencemen means there’s a value opportunity to build a strong blue line without using top draft picks like in recent seasons.

With this in mind, I’m going to through a few forwards and defencemen I think may present a good value on draft day. Every draft room is different, and there’s a lot that can change, but these are some of my initial leans.

Cam Atkinson

Atkinson has put up 43 goals over the last two seasons, his first two full 82-game seasons in the NHL. He’s a bit older than some people may think – next year is his Age 26 season – but for now, I see him slotting in the top line with Ryan Johansen and Brandon Saad. That’s a pretty good spot.

Over those two seasons, Atkinson has been on the ice for more high-danger scoring chances (check out this read for details) at 17.26 per 60 minutes at five-on-five than Johansen has (16.52). He’s also not very far behind guys like Zach Parise (17.39) and Phil Kessel (17.35).

With more ice time and a great line, Atkinson could have that breakout year next year. Though if he is on that top line come training camp, it could really make his draft position jump. 

Brendan Gallagher

My disdain for the Montreal coaching staff aside, there are a lot of positives here. Gallagher:

  • Got up over three shots per game last year despite playing just 16:35 per game. He was fifth among all forwards last year in total shots at five-on-five.
  • Is just outside the top-20 forwards in on-ice high danger scoring chances over the last two years, just behind Jonathan Toews.
  • Is coming into his prime production years.

Gallagher stuffs those peripherals, and his goal total has climbed every year in the NHL. He had 24 goals last year, and I would not be shocked in the least if he cracked 30.

There is really nothing not to like about his game:

Craig Smith

A new contract notwithstanding, he has posted 24 and 23 goals the last two seasons. Despite 40 fewer seconds per game this past season than the year prior, Smith also got up over three shots per game for the first time.

The top-six in Nashville looks like it’ll be good again next year, and that blue line should help the offence keep attacking. With maybe an extra minute or two per game, the volume alone could push him towards 30 goals.

Michael Stone

Moving to defencemen, with Keith Yandle gone, Stone should be the number-2 defenceman behind Oliver Ekman-Larsson. That bodes well for power play time, and ice time overall.

Once Yandle was traded last year, Stone saw his ice time jump by about four minutes per game. He also saw an abnormally-low 2.1-percent personal shooting percentage on the season as a whole. With a jump in ice time, and a rebound in shooting percentage, this is a guy who should at least crack the double-digit goals plateau, with upside beyond that.

Oscar Klefbom

There’s a new regime in Edmonton, which means (I hope, anyway) that the pressure is on Justin Schultz to perform, or have his role minimized. That’s where Klefbom could pick up some slack.

Even if Schultz stays on the top power play unit, there’s more than enough talent to go around, and Klefbom would be just find on the second power play pairing.

From his rookie year to last year, Klefbom doubled his shot per game total despite just a 25-percent increase in ice time. He was another player who had a terrible shooting percentage, and even with just a rebound to six or seven percent, with a full season and 22 minutes a game, Klefbom could be a sneaky late-round pick to get 10 goals.  

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