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2020 NHL Draft: Top 10 Mock Scenarios 9.0
In this series, I’ve been running the Tankathon simulator for the draft lottery on a daily basis and mocking the results for the top 10 leading up to the 2020 NHL draft — or until the actual lottery takes place to determine the official draft order.
There are more than 30 different scenarios within the top-three picks, so this should provide plenty of entertainment for 30-plus days — for at least a month, if not longer, while awaiting the NHL’s plan going forward.
The debut edition elaborated on all the details for this series and provided analysis for each pick. That analysis will continue for every new selection while linking repetitive picks back to their original mock for reference. I’ll try to keep it as fresh as possible and mix in the occasional surprise — along with additional insight — but might also shorten the analysis at times to ensure these mocks are published daily.
Without further ado, let’s reveal the results from my ninth attempt at the Tankathon simulator, which produced this order for the top 10.
1) Los Angeles Kings
2) Anaheim Ducks
3) Arizona Coyotes (top-three protected)
4) Detroit Red Wings
5) Ottawa Senators
6) Ottawa Senators (San Jose)
7) New Jersey Devils
8) Buffalo Sabres
9) Montreal Canadiens
10) Chicago Blackhawks
Mock 9.0: The Picks
1) Los Angeles Kings — Alexis Lafreniere (LW, Canada, Rimouski QMJHL)
ANALYSIS: Los Angeles is the lucky lottery winner in this scenario, meaning Lafreniere is heading to Hollywood. It also means the rich are getting richer since the Kings already have the league’s best prospect pool — according to The Hockey Writers, among other sources. Los Angeles has amassed impressive and enviable depth in their system but still lacks a defining face of the franchise for the future, so Lafreniere would ascend to that throne. He would be the go-to guy sooner than later and be wearing the crown for the resurgent Kings in the years to come when the old guard of Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar and Jonathan Quick are no longer. Lafreniere would be a huge hit there — another Hollywood star — and L.A. has the supporting cast on the way to ensure the Kings become contenders again.
2) Anaheim Ducks — Quinton Byfield (LC, Canada, Sudbury OHL)
ANALYSIS: Anaheim also moves up three spots as another lottery winner — from fifth to second, while L.A. went from fourth to first — with that California rivalry sure to heat up if Byfield is destined for Disneyland. The Ducks may consider the draft’s top defenceman Jamie Drysdale, but Byfield’s package of size and speed, playmaking and power is too compelling to pass up. Anaheim sees Byfield as Ryan Getzlaf’s successor, as mentioned in mock 7.0 when the Ducks took him for the first time.
3) Arizona Coyotes (top-three protected) — Marco Rossi (LC, Austria/Switzerland, Ottawa OHL)
ANALYSIS: Arizona completes the Pacific sweep of lottery winners, with the Coyotes getting their pick back from New Jersey since it was top-three protected as a condition of the Taylor Hall trade — thus deferring their 2021 first-round pick to the Devils. Arizona also contemplates Drysdale as their best player available but decides to go with Rossi as an offensive catalyst, partly because the Coyotes used their 2019 first-round pick on a right-handed defenceman in Victor Soderstrom. Granted, they previously used their 2018 first-round pick — a top-five selection, at fifth overall — on OHL centre Barrett Hayton. There is plenty of debate at Arizona’s draft table between the two OHL standouts — Drysdale and Rossi — but even if defence wins championships, offence sells tickets and Rossi can really rack up the points to generate much-needed revenue in the desert. Rossi and Hayton would be quite the one-two punch down the middle for the Coyotes, but they might regret passing on Drysdale as their careers play out.
4) Detroit Red Wings — Tim Stutzle (LC/LW, Germany, Adler Mannheim DEL)
ANALYSIS: Detroit loses the lottery — falling from first to fourth — but still lands one of their top targets in Stutzle. The Red Wings take the German forward for a fourth time, having previously selected Stutzle in mock 2.0 (third), mock 3.0 (second) and mock 7.0 (fourth). All the analysis you need is there, in those mocks, which provide reason to believe that Detroit could be coveting Stutzle outside of Lafreniere.
5) Ottawa Senators — Jamie Drysdale (RD, Canada, Erie OHL)
ANALYSIS: Ottawa is the other lottery loser — dropping from second and third to fifth and sixth, the first time they have fallen that far — but the Senators wouldn’t be sulking if Drysdale was still available. Ottawa would gladly take the top defender for a third time in this scenario — previously taking Drysdale in mock 2.0 (fourth) and mock 8.0 (third), with that analysis also holding true here.
6) Ottawa Senators (San Jose) — Lucas Raymond (RW, Sweden, Frolunda SHL)
ANALYSIS: Ottawa follows up with one of their favourites by taking Raymond for a fifth time — tying Drysdale to Los Angeles and Rossi to New Jersey for the most common matches in this series. The Senators previously took Raymond in mock 1.0 (fifth), mock 5.0 (fourth), mock 6.0 (fourth) and mock 7.0 (third), with the Frolunda connection influencing this selection.
7) New Jersey Devils — Alexander Holtz (LW/RW, Sweden, Djurgardens SHL)
ANALYSIS: New Jersey surveys the options — with their favourite target, Rossi, off the board — and winds up making a new selection in Holtz. The Devils don’t have a true sniper on the wing and haven’t had one since Ilya Kovalchuk bolted for the KHL. Zach Parise was already gone by then and Kyle Palmieri could be the next to go, though he was never on that level. Hall scored 39 goals for the Devils in his MVP season and was always a volume shooter but isn’t much of a sniper either. Holtz is a poor man’s Patrik Laine, possessing a lethal release and the ability to score from distance. New Jersey needs that kind of threat, envisioning Holtz as a finisher for Jack Hughes.
8) Buffalo Sabres — Noel Gunler (RW/LW, Sweden, Lulea SHL)
ANALYSIS: Buffalo continues the run of Swedish wingers with another new selection in Gunler, who can score with the best of them in this draft class and may net more goals than current Sabre and fellow Swede Victor Olofsson. Gunler isn’t as polished as the previous two and thus might be a bit of a project, which Olofsson certainly was as a seventh-round pick from 2014. Buffalo would need to be patient with this prospect, but Gunler could pay huge dividends for the Sabres once he adjusts to the NHL. That development curve will be intriguing to follow, but Buffalo has several shooting wingers on the roster and therefore wouldn’t need to rush Gunler. If the Sabres wanted more of a sure thing — more of a safe bet — they could take Finnish centre Anton Lundell for a third time, having previously taken the two-way pivot at this spot in mock 3.0 and mock 6.0. But Gunler’s upside would be tempting, with a higher ceiling than Lundell and the potential to become a real impact player offensively.
9) Montreal Canadiens — Cole Perfetti (LW/LC, Canada, Saginaw OHL)
ANALYSIS: Montreal takes Perfetti for a fourth time — previously taking the undersized scorer in mock 1.0, mock 4.0 and mock 7.0. Perfetti has emerged as the Canadiens’ most popular choice and would form a wicked combination with 2019 first-rounder Cole Caufield, as alluded to in the analysis from those earlier scenarios. That would be the thinking here in a no-brainer selection for the Habs.
10) Chicago Blackhawks — Seth Jarvis (RW, Canada, Portland WHL)
ANALYSIS: Chicago also switches it up with a new selection in Jarvis, who was ripping it up in the WHL when the season was cut short. Jarvis had a ton of momentum at that time and could have made a charge for the top 10 by sustaining his scoring pace into the playoffs. He was rising fast and some team might still reach for Jarvis in this range. Chicago took Kirby Dach out of the Dub as their 2019 first-rounder and could go back there to grab Jarvis since the Blackhawks don’t have that kind of dynamic right-winger in their system to potentially replace Patrick Kane. Jarvis could learn a lot from Kane and could live up to this draft position through further development. Chicago’s other options include Yaroslav Askarov, the draft’s top goaltender who they took in mock 1.0, and Jake Sanderson, the betting favourite to be the second defenceman drafted in 2020 and the Blackhawks’ most common selection thus far as a three-time pick from mock 4.0, mock 6.0 and mock 7.0. But Jarvis can flat-out fly and would be another nice fit in the Windy City.
Recapping Results for Mock 9.0
1) Los Angeles Kings — Alexis Lafreniere (LW, Canada, Rimouski QMJHL)
2) Anaheim Ducks — Quinton Byfield (LC, Canada, Sudbury OHL)
3) Arizona Coyotes (top-three protected) — Marco Rossi (LC, Austria/Switzerland, Ottawa OHL)
4) Detroit Red Wings — Tim Stutzle (LC/LW, Germany, Adler Mannheim DEL)
5) Ottawa Senators — Jamie Drysdale (RD, Canada, Erie OHL)
6) Ottawa Senators (San Jose) — Lucas Raymond (RW, Sweden, Frolunda SHL)
7) New Jersey Devils — Alexander Holtz (LW/RW, Sweden, Djurgardens SHL)
8) Buffalo Sabres — Noel Gunler (RW/LW, Sweden, Lulea SHL)
9) Montreal Canadiens — Cole Perfetti (LW/LC, Canada, Saginaw OHL)
10) Chicago Blackhawks — Seth Jarvis (RW, Canada, Portland WHL)
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