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Larry Fisher The Hockey Writers

Published on Wednesday, May 6, 2020

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2020 NHL Draft: First Round Mock Scenarios 7.1

This series, which started with top 10 scenarios, has expanded to the top 31 — to first round scenarios for the 2020 NHL Draft — by extending those 10 initial mocks, using the same results for the top 10 from running the Tankathon simulator for the draft lottery.

The debut edition elaborated on all the details and I’ve explained the rationale for the remainder of the draft order. I’ll be providing analysis for every new selection while linking repetitive picks back to their original mock for reference. I’ll try to keep it as fresh as possible and mix in some surprises — along with additional insight — but might shorten the analysis at times to ensure these mocks are published weekly (or as frequently as possible).

Without further ado, here is a recap of the top 10 from mock 7.0 followed by selections 11-31 for mock 7.1:

1) New Jersey Devils — Alexis Lafreniere (LW, Canada, Rimouski QMJHL)

2) Anaheim Ducks — Quinton Byfield (LC, Canada, Sudbury OHL)

3) Ottawa Senators (San Jose) — Lucas Raymond (RW, Sweden, Frolunda SHL)

4) Detroit Red Wings — Tim Stutzle (LC/LW, Germany, Adler Mannheim DEL)

5) Ottawa Senators — Marco Rossi (LC, Austria/Switzerland, Ottawa OHL)

6) Los Angeles Kings — Jamie Drysdale (RD, Canada, Erie OHL)

7) Buffalo Sabres — Alexander Holtz (LW/RW, Sweden, Djurgardens SHL)

8) Montreal Canadiens — Cole Perfetti (LW/LC, Canada, Saginaw OHL)

9) Chicago Blackhawks — Jake Sanderson (LD, USA, NTDP U18)

10) New Jersey Devils (via Arizona) — Jack Quinn (RW, Canada, Ottawa OHL)

11) Minnesota Wild — Anton Lundell (LC, Finland, HIFK Liiga)

ANALYSIS: Minnesota takes Lundell for the third time — a repeat pick from mock 1.1 and mock 4.1. The hope is for Mikko Koivu 2.0.

12) Winnipeg Jets — Connor Zary (LC, Canada, Kamloops WHL)

ANALYSIS: Winnipeg takes Zary for the second time — a repeat pick from mock 4.1. The Jets see Zary as their next Bryan Little, which is a compliment considering Little was drafted at this same spot — 12th overall in 2006, when still the Atlanta Thrashers — and has gone on to play 870 games for the franchise, recording 533 points (221 goals, 312 assists). That would be a quality career for Zary as a second-line centre behind Mark Scheifele.

13) New York Rangers — Dylan Holloway (LC, Canada, Wisconsin NCAA)

ANALYSIS: The Rangers take Holloway for the second time — a repeat pick from mock 5.1. Jeff Gorton, Chris Drury and David Quinn all have NCAA roots and would all see the value of Holloway as a heavier middle-six centre, which they have missed since trading away Kevin Hayes. Holloway has more offensive upside than Brett Howden and Lias Andersson, who may not be in the Rangers’ plans going forward.

14) Florida Panthers — Justin Barron (RD, Canada, Halifax QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Florida takes their seventh different prospect in as many mocks, with Dale Tallon wanting to build from the back end around Aaron Ekblad and Barron on the right side. The Panthers have some scoring wingers arriving soon in recent first-rounders Owen Tippett and Grigori Denisenko and they solidified their goaltending future by taking Spencer Knight last year, so addressing defence is a pretty good bet for 2020. Barron is their fourth different defenceman through seven scenarios — following Jake Sanderson, Kaiden Guhle and Braden Schneider — so it is difficult to determine who Florida will target at that position. Tallon played defence — he was the second overall pick in 1970 as a fun fact — so he’ll have a feel for who he likes from that group and Barron could be the guy.

15) Columbus Blue Jackets — Kaiden Guhle (LD, Canada, Prince Albert WHL)

ANALYSIS: Columbus takes Guhle, who has many of the same strengths as Ryan Murray. Guhle has good size and skating, developing into a two-way force in the Dub but likely to be relied on in more of a shutdown role as a pro — much like Murray. As a prospect, Guhle isn’t far off from Murray in his draft year, which speaks volumes about how much stronger this 2020 class is than 2012 when Murray went second overall behind Nail Yakupov. Injuries have obviously hindered Murray’s career, but a healthy Guhle could have a similar impact for the Blue Jackets in the years to come.

16) Calgary Flames — Braden Schneider (RD, Canada, Brandon WHL)

ANALYSIS: Calgary takes Schneider for the second time — a repeat pick from mock 3.1. The Flames would see him as a successor for Travis Hamonic, who is the best comparable for Schneider as an alum from the same junior program in Brandon. Schneider isn’t as physical as Robyn Regehr, another former Flame cut from that cloth, but Schneider is a stronger skater and that allows him to defend just as well. He is a shutdown beast.

17) Vancouver Canucks — Noel Gunler (RW/LW, Sweden, Lulea SHL)

ANALYSIS: Vancouver takes Gunler for the third time — a repeat pick from mock 4.1 and mock 5.1, keeping pace with Lundell as the most common match thus far. Gunler would be an ideal addition for the Canucks as a future linemate for fellow Swedes Elias Pettersson and Nils Hoglander. That trio would be wicked fun to watch.

18) Nashville Predators — Helge Grans (RD, Sweden, Malmo J20)

ANALYSIS: Nashville takes Grans as their fifth different defenceman through seven scenarios — following Barron, Lukas Cormier, Guhle and William Wallinder, who the Predators took in mock 6.1. Wallinder was compared to Mattias Ekholm there, but Grans better fits that bill in terms of playing style, with Wallinder’s upside being closer to John Klingberg. I had previously compared Grans to Alex Edler, but he has a lot of Ekholm in him too. Nashville would do well with either of those Swedes, perhaps preferring Grans between them since he is right handed and could push Dante Fabbro for top-four duty behind Ryan Ellis in the not-too-distant future.

19) Carolina Hurricanes (Toronto) — Rodion Amirov (LW, Russia, Salavat Yulaev Ufa KHL)

ANALYSIS: Carolina takes Amirov to play behind fellow Russian Andrei Svechnikov on their left wing. They could form a potent one-two punch for the Hurricanes, with Amirov being less flashy — he may not pull off The Svechnikov lacrosse-style goals — but just as effective. Amirov is well rounded, but his attacking abilities shouldn’t be underestimated. He is a legit top-20 prospect in this draft class — arguably closer to the top 10 — and should have a productive career wherever he winds up.

20) Edmonton Oilers — Yaroslav Askarov (G, Russia, SKA-Neva St. Petersburg VHL)

ANALYSIS: Edmonton already has more goalies than they know what to do with, but they don’t have a franchise goaltender like Askarov. He is considered the best goaltending prospect to come through the draft since Carey Price went fifth overall in 2005, so Askarov could be a real steal here at 20th. This isn’t a position of need in terms of depth — the Oilers have five goalies in their system, though Shane Starrett is a pending free agent just one season removed from being an AHL all-star — but Askarov could be Edmonton’s long-term answer in net ahead of local product Stuart Skinner, Olivier Rodrigue, Dylan Wells and fellow Russian Ilya Konovalov, who was taken as a triple-overager in last year’s third round. Rodrigue was a second-rounder in 2018 and his father is a goaltending coach in the Oilers’ organization, while Skinner was a third-rounder in 2017 and Wells a fifth-rounder in 2016. Still, I wouldn’t rule out Ken Holland taking Askarov if he is available. Never say never and remember that the Oilers drafted another left-handed defenceman in last year’s first round, which was already the organization’s deepest position.

21) Ottawa Senators (N.Y. Islanders) — Hendrix Lapierre (LC, Canada, Chicoutimi QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Ottawa takes Lapierre for the second time — a repeat pick from mock 1.1. A case can be made for Lapierre as the best player available here and the Senators can afford the risk surrounding his concussion history since this is their third selection of the first round — previously taking Lucas Raymond and Marco Rossi in this scenario. Lapierre would give the Sens three stellar forwards for their resurgence.

22) Dallas Stars — Seth Jarvis (RW, Canada, Portland WHL)

ANALYSIS: Dallas could use more speed up front and Jarvis would provide a nice jolt for the Stars’ forward group. He is both fast and quick — yes, those are two different traits — and Jarvis isn’t afraid of traffic areas or driving the net off the rush. He is undersized, but it’s hardly noticeable when watching him at work — similar to Edmonton’s Kailer Yamamoto in that sense. But Jarvis’ speed is next level and exactly what Dallas needs when looking at the Stars’ depth chart both present and future.

23) New York Rangers (Carolina) — Jake Neighbours (LW, Canada, Edmonton WHL)

ANALYSIS: The Rangers take a new name in Neighbours as a reliable 200-foot winger who would work well with their previous selection, Holloway, but is capable of playing up and down the lineup. Neighbours isn’t necessarily a sexy pick — he doesn’t have the most upside, comparative to some of the other prospects still on the board — but he is the type of player that teams win with. Neighbours does all the little things and doesn’t quit, but he also has enough skill to contribute offensively, which is why he could go in the first round.

24) Pittsburgh Penguins — Lukas Reichel (LW/RW, Germany, Berlin DEL)

ANALYSIS: Pittsburgh takes Reichel as another versatile forward with underrated skill. He seems to have his uncle Robert’s talent — and a bit of that Czech flair — despite being born and raised in Germany, where his father Martin played his entire pro career. Martin was a second-round pick (37th overall) for Edmonton in 1992, so it’ll be interesting to see if Lukas gets bragging rights over his dad by getting drafted higher. Lukas plays a very pro-style game that should transition well to North America, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him taken in the top 31.

25) Philadelphia Flyers — Ridly Greig (LC/LW, Canada, Brandon WHL)

ANALYSIS: Philadelphia takes Greig, whose dad Mark scouts for the Flyers, but there is no favouritism or conflict of interest with this selection. That reality was more so a coincidence in this case, with the Flyers liking Greig’s upside as well as his rugged side. Greig plays on the edge when he’s fully engaged — a style that would be welcomed on Broad Street. Greig would become a fan favourite in Philly, providing he pans out, with his game getting compared to Brayden Schenn and Brad Marchand, though Greig is still quite raw with plenty of developing to do. He is one of the younger prospects in this draft class with an August birthdate, but the Flyers have plenty of forward prospects and could be patient with Greig by keeping him in junior for the next couple seasons — under his dad’s watchful eye, with Dave Lowry overseeing that development in Brandon.

26) Colorado Avalanche — Jan Mysak (LW, Czech Republic, Hamilton OHL)

ANALYSIS: Colorado would be jumping for joy if Mysak fell this far, with the Avs potentially getting the steal of the draft here. The rich would be getting richer if this scenario came to fruition since the Avs already boast one of the league’s best prospect pools. Mysak could form a dynamic duo with 2018 first-rounder and fellow Czech Martin Kaut. Colorado could have them flanking Alex Newhook in the future. That might be wishful thinking, but Mysak would be the easy choice for the Avs if he were somehow still available.

27) San Jose Sharks (Tampa Bay) — John-Jason Peterka (LW, Germany, Munchen DEL)

ANALYSIS: San Jose would be thrilled to take Peterka and might prefer him to the other German winger Reichel, who the Sharks took in mock 3.1. If San Jose doesn’t draft by position in targeting a centre — which they have done in three of seven scenarios thus far, taking Thomas Bordeleau, Jaromir Pytlik and Jack Finley as reaches to some degree — then the Germans make a lot of sense for the Sharks, who have a long history with players from that non-traditional nation. That list includes Marco Sturm, Christian Ehrhoff, Marcel Goc and Thomas Greiss, plus current prospects Lean Bergmann and Manuel Wiederer. They signed Bergmann out of Germany prior to last season, so San Jose is evidently still scouting the DEL and they will like what they see in this year’s draft class. Peterka is more appealing to the eye than Reichel, possessing breakaway speed and an attacking mentality that could make him a perfect fit for the Sharks.

28) Vegas Golden Knights — Marat Khusnutdinov (LC, Russia, SKA-1946 St. Petersburg MHL)

ANALYSIS: Vegas has shown a willingness to draft Russians and seems to be getting rewarded with 2018 second-rounder Ivan Morozov and 2019 third-rounder Pavel Dorofeyev both trending well in their development. Khusnutdinov is considered a riser as a two-way centre who flashed more offensive upside as the draft year progressed, showing off his creativity as his confidence continued to grow. Morozov was also drafted as a two-way type, so the Golden Knights may feel Khusnutdinov is a tad redundant, but seeing Morozov take off might increase Vegas’ interest in Khusnutdinov, who finished the season looking like a legitimate first-round talent.

29) Washington Capitals — Shakir Mukhamadullin (LD, Russia, Tolpar Ufa MHL)

ANALYSIS: Washington takes a new name in Mukhamadullin, who will be one of the draft’s wild cards despite being a fixture in the first round of Craig Button’s rankings. The Capitals will see shades of Dmitry Orlov in Mukhamadullin. Orlov, who went in the second round (55th overall) in 2009, was a bit of a wild man in his younger years — going out of his way to lay big hits as a complement to his booming shot. Mukhamadullin is much the same — Orlov is the best comparable for him in general — but some scouts question his hockey sense and consistency has been an issue. Mukhamadullin has looked like a world-beater at times, including on the international stage when representing Russia. He scored the golden goal in overtime at the World Junior A Challenge and might have been a first-rounder coming out of that showcase, but it’ll be interesting to see where Mukhamadullin lands on draft day. Washington is certainly a potential landing spot.

30) St. Louis Blues — Vasily Ponomarev (LC, Russia, Shawinigan QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: St. Louis continues the run of Russians by taking another new name in Ponomarev, who could be on the Blues’ radar based on recent history. The Blues have done well drafting Russian centres out of the Q, getting Ivan Barbashev in the second round (33rd overall) in 2014 and using last year’s top pick on Nikita Alexandrov as a second-rounder who shone for Russia at this year’s World Juniors despite doing much of his developing in Germany before crossing the pond as an import. St. Louis also has Klim Kostin on the cusp of becoming an NHLer as a 2017 first-rounder (31st overall) and, of course, Vladimir Tarasenko as one of their star players in the present. Alexei Toropchenko is another Russian forward prospect who played in the CHL as an import, so the Blues could be eyeing Ponomarev or perhaps Khusnutdinov if he were still available here. Ponomarev was a standout for Russia at international tournaments during his draft year but didn’t turn as many heads in the Q, which might be to the Blues’ benefit if he’s flying under the radar for other teams as a result.

31) Anaheim Ducks (Boston) — Dawson Mercer (RW, Canada, Chicoutimi QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Anaheim would be over the moon with Mercer here, closing out the first round by selecting another QMJHL forward who is perceived to be a top-20 prospect in this draft class. The Ducks’ prospect pool already includes Max Comtois, Bo Groulx and Antoine Morand, so Mercer would be a nice fit with that trio of upcoming talent. Speaking of trios, Anaheim would also be completing their trifecta of Q forwards within this mock series, having previously picked Lapierre as well as Mavrik Bourque not once but twice. A few other teams have taken all three of them through seven scenarios, but the Ducks would be happy with any of them at this spot. Bourque is the best bet to be still available, but Mercer could slide as an older prospect who didn’t produce as much in the second half following the World Juniors and his trade to Chicoutimi.

Recapping Results for Mock 7.1

1) New Jersey Devils — Alexis Lafreniere (LW, Canada, Rimouski QMJHL)

2) Anaheim Ducks — Quinton Byfield (LC, Canada, Sudbury OHL)

3) Ottawa Senators (San Jose) — Lucas Raymond (RW, Sweden, Frolunda SHL)

4) Detroit Red Wings — Tim Stutzle (LC/LW, Germany, Adler Mannheim DEL)

5) Ottawa Senators — Marco Rossi (LC, Austria/Switzerland, Ottawa OHL)

6) Los Angeles Kings — Jamie Drysdale (RD, Canada, Erie OHL)

7) Buffalo Sabres — Alexander Holtz (LW/RW, Sweden, Djurgardens SHL)

8) Montreal Canadiens — Cole Perfetti (LW/LC, Canada, Saginaw OHL)

9) Chicago Blackhawks — Jake Sanderson (LD, USA, NTDP U18)

10) New Jersey Devils (via Arizona) — Jack Quinn (RW, Canada, Ottawa OHL)

11) Minnesota Wild — Anton Lundell (LC, Finland, HIFK Liiga)

12) Winnipeg Jets — Connor Zary (LC, Canada, Kamloops WHL)

13) New York Rangers — Dylan Holloway (LC, Canada, Wisconsin NCAA)

14) Florida Panthers — Justin Barron (RD, Canada, Halifax QMJHL)

15) Columbus Blue Jackets — Kaiden Guhle (LD, Canada, Prince Albert WHL)

16) Calgary Flames — Braden Schneider (RD, Canada, Brandon WHL)

17) Vancouver Canucks — Noel Gunler (RW/LW, Sweden, Lulea SHL)

18) Nashville Predators — Helge Grans (RD, Sweden, Malmo J20)

19) Carolina Hurricanes (Toronto) — Rodion Amirov (LW, Russia, Salavat Yulaev Ufa KHL)

20) Edmonton Oilers — Yaroslav Askarov (G, Russia, SKA-Neva St. Petersburg VHL)

21) Ottawa Senators (N.Y. Islanders) — Hendrix Lapierre (LC, Canada, Chicoutimi QMJHL)

22) Dallas Stars — Seth Jarvis (RW, Canada, Portland WHL)

23) New York Rangers (Carolina) — Jake Neighbours (LW, Canada, Edmonton WHL)

24) Pittsburgh Penguins — Lukas Reichel (LW/RW, Germany, Berlin DEL)

25) Philadelphia Flyers — Ridly Greig (LC/LW, Canada, Brandon WHL)

26) Colorado Avalanche — Jan Mysak (LW, Czech Republic, Hamilton OHL)

27) San Jose Sharks (Tampa Bay) — John-Jason Peterka (LW, Germany, Munchen DEL)

28) Vegas Golden Knights — Marat Khusnutdinov (LC, Russia, SKA-1946 St. Petersburg MHL)

29) Washington Capitals — Shakir Mukhamadullin (LD, Russia, Tolpar Ufa MHL)

30) St. Louis Blues — Vasily Ponomarev (LC, Russia, Shawinigan QMJHL)

31) Anaheim Ducks (Boston) — Dawson Mercer (RW, Canada, Chicoutimi QMJHL)

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