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Larry Fisher The Hockey Writers

Published on Tuesday, May 12, 2020

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2020 NHL Draft: First Round Mock Scenarios 8.1

This series, which started with top 10 scenarios, has expanded to the top 31 — to first round scenarios for the 2020 NHL Draft — by extending those 10 initial mocks, using the same results for the top 10 from running the Tankathon simulator for the draft lottery.

The debut edition elaborated on all the details and I’ve explained the rationale for the remainder of the draft order. I’ll be providing analysis for every new selection while linking repetitive picks back to their original mock for reference. I’ll try to keep it as fresh as possible and mix in some surprises — along with additional insight — but might shorten the analysis at times to ensure these mocks are published weekly (or as frequently as possible).

Without further ado, here is a recap of the top 10 from mock 8.0 followed by selections 11-31 for mock 8.1:

1) Detroit Red Wings — Alexis Lafreniere (LW, Canada, Rimouski QMJHL)

2) Ottawa Senators — Quinton Byfield (LC, Canada, Sudbury OHL)

3) Ottawa Senators (San Jose) — Jamie Drysdale (RD, Canada, Erie OHL)

4) Los Angeles Kings — Yaroslav Askarov (G, Russia, SKA-Neva St. Petersburg VHL)

5) Anaheim Ducks — Cole Perfetti (LW/LC, Canada, Saginaw OHL)

6) New Jersey Devils — Marco Rossi (LC, Austria/Switzerland, Ottawa OHL)

7) Buffalo Sabres — Tim Stutzle (LC/LW, Germany, Adler Mannheim DEL)

8) Montreal Canadiens — Lucas Raymond (RW, Sweden, Frolunda SHL)

9) Chicago Blackhawks — Alexander Holtz (LW/RW, Sweden, Djurgardens SHL)

10) New Jersey Devils (via Arizona) — Jack Quinn (RW, Canada, Ottawa OHL)

RELATED: THW Writers Mock Draft

11) Minnesota Wild — Jake Sanderson (LD, USA, NTDP U18)

ANALYSIS: Minnesota takes Sanderson for the second time — a repeat pick from mock 3.1. The Wild see Sanderson as a successor for Ryan Suter, who could be seen as a good comparable for Sanderson. For the record, this is the first time that Minnesota has passed on Anton Lundell, preferring Sanderson between the two in this scenario.

12) Winnipeg Jets — Anton Lundell (LC, Finland, HIFK Liiga)

ANALYSIS: Winnipeg would be awfully lucky to land Lundell here in a rare scenario where he gets out of the top 10 and past Minnesota. The Jets may be eyeing two Western Canadian centres — Connor Zary and Dylan Holloway — but they wouldn’t be able to overlook Lundell. Winnipeg has taken Finns with their three most recent first-round picks — starting with Patrik Laine in 2016, followed by Kristian Vesalainen in 2017 and Ville Heinola in 2019 — so Lundell would be continuing that trend. He could develop chemistry with Vesalainen in the future, ideally in a second-line role but perhaps on the third line.

13) New York Rangers — Hendrix Lapierre (LC, Canada, Chicoutimi QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: The Rangers would be all over Lundell if Winnipeg allowed him to keep sliding — considering Lundell centered Kaapo Kakko at the 2019 World Juniors in Vancouver — but Lapierre is a nice consolation prize, providing his health holds up going forward. With two first-round picks, the Rangers can take a swing here on a high-risk, high-reward forward like Lapierre, who missed much of his draft year due to concussion and neck issues but was touted as a top-10 talent coming out of the Hlinka Gretzky Cup last summer.

14) Florida Panthers — Rodion Amirov (LW, Russia, Salavat Yulaev Ufa KHL)

ANALYSIS: Florida takes Amirov for the second time — a repeat pick from mock 6.1. The Panthers like their Russians lately, with Amirov joining 2018 first-rounder Grigori Denisenko, who just signed for next season. Denisenko shoots right and can play either wing, which could allow Amirov to slot in behind Jonathan Huberdeau on his strong side. The combination of Amirov and Denisenko could make up for Florida missing out on Artemi Panarin in free agency last summer and potentially losing Evgeni Dadonov in a cost-cutting measure this offseason.

15) Columbus Blue Jackets — Noel Gunler (RW/LW, Sweden, Lulea SHL)

ANALYSIS: Columbus takes Gunler for the second time — a repeat pick from mock 2.1. Gunler can score and the Blue Jackets need all the goals they can get. That makes this a good match, especially with Gustav Nyquist now in Columbus as the perfect mentor for Gunler, who may need some guidance in becoming a good pro.

16) Calgary Flames — Kaiden Guhle (LD, Canada, Prince Albert WHL)

ANALYSIS: Calgary takes Guhle for the second time — another repeat pick from mock 2.1. The Flames could certainly be targeting one of the WHL defencemen — be it Guhle or Braden Schneider, who they have also taken twice in this mock series. Guhle is from Alberta and could help fill the eventual void when Mark Giordano retires, though Calgary already has Noah Hanifin and Juuso Valimaki solidifying the left side for the foreseeable future. Guhle’s addition would ensure that stays a position of strength.

17) Vancouver Canucks — Dylan Holloway (LC, Canada, Wisconsin NCAA)

ANALYSIS: Vancouver takes Holloway to replace Tyler Madden’s presence in their prospect pool as a future third-line centre behind Elias Pettersson and Bo Horvat. And there is nothing wrong with taking Holloway to be a third-line centre. Teams need those too and he would be one of the league’s best in that role. Holloway would be better than Brandon Sutter at his best — and Sutter went 11th overall back in 2007. Not every first-round pick becomes a top-six forward, though Holloway would be very capable of moving up as a middle-six option. But he would excel on a third line with Adam Gaudette and Jake Virtanen or perhaps Vasily Podkolzin. Judd Brackett will like Holloway, but Jim Benning and John Weisbrod will love Holloway.

18) Nashville Predators — Jan Mysak (LW, Czech Republic, Hamilton OHL)

ANALYSIS: Nashville takes Mysak as a scoring forward who would fit well with their top two picks from 2019 in fellow OHLers Philip Tomasino and Egor Afanasyev. That could be a future line for the Predators, who also have 2017 first-rounder Eeli Tolvanen as a somewhat similar player to Mysak. Those four would become a big part of Nashville’s future offence.

19) Carolina Hurricanes (Toronto) — Connor Zary (LC, Canada, Kamloops WHL)

ANALYSIS: Carolina takes Zary, trusting amateur scout Cody Nickolet’s familiarity with Zary from Saskatoon where he was a dominant minor hockey player before becoming one of the top talents in the WHL. The Hurricanes are due to draft from the Dub, having not selected any prospects from the WHL with 18 selections over the past two years. Prior to that, Carolina got Morgan Geekie and Stelio Mattheos in 2017 and Jake Bean with their first-rounder in 2016, so that league has been pretty good to the Hurricanes and it is time to go back there for Zary.

20) Edmonton Oilers — Seth Jarvis (RW, Canada, Portland WHL)

ANALYSIS: Edmonton takes Jarvis after seeing the success of Kailer Yamamoto this season. Jarvis is slightly bigger and significantly faster but wired much the same with a drive to overcome any size concerns. Jarvis is a driver offensively, dangerous off the rush with his speed and possessing both scoring and playmaking abilities. A comparison was recently made to Andrew Cogliano, which isn’t a bad one stylistically and looking back to Cogliano’s draft year when he appeared to have similar offensive upside as a first-rounder (25th overall) in 2005, but Jarvis is more dynamic with a bit of Matt Barzal in his attacking prowess. If Cogliano is the floor for Jarvis and a poor man’s Barzal is the ceiling, the Oilers would be thrilled with anything in between. Heck, they’d gladly take a clone of Cogliano’s career at this spot.

21) Ottawa Senators (N.Y. Islanders) — Theodor Niederbach (RC, Sweden, Frolunda J20)

ANALYSIS: Ottawa reaches for Niederbach, who missed all of last season to injury but flashed first-round upside throughout his draft year in making up for that lost development time. The Senators are tapped into Sweden and particularly Frolunda, which previously produced Daniel Alfredsson and Erik Karlsson as franchise players for Ottawa. So they will have the book on Niederbach, and with this being Ottawa’s third selection of the first round, Pierre Dorion can swing for the fences. In hindsight, Niederbach should have been the target here in mock 5.1 when the Senators took Swedish wingers Lucas Raymond and Alexander Holtz in the top 10 — Raymond also hailing from Frolunda — which would have given Ottawa a full line of Swedes for the future with Niederbach as their centre. In this scenario, Niederbach would be joining Quinton Byfield and Jamie Drysdale in Ottawa, which would suit Sens’ fans just fine.

22) Dallas Stars — Roni Hirvonen (LC, Finland, Assat Liiga)

ANALYSIS: Dallas has been hitting homers out of Finland in recent years — with Miro Heiskanen third overall in 2017 and Roope Hintz as a second-rounder in 2015 — so the Stars take a swing on another intriguing European centre in Hirvonen. Dallas is plenty big up front, which allows Jim Nill to select the undersized Hirvonen in hopes that he’ll develop along the lines of Carolina’s Sebastian Aho. It is debatable whether Hirvonen has that much offensive upside or creativity in his game, but Dallas could just as easily reach for fellow Finns Kasper Simontaival or Veeti Miettinen — both undersized wingers with big upside.

23) New York Rangers (Carolina) — Dawson Mercer (RW, Canada, Chicoutimi QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: The Rangers would gladly take Mercer here to form a French connection with their previous selection, Lapierre. That is assuming Mercer speaks French as a Maritimer from Newfoundland developing in the Q. Lapierre and Mercer could bring back memories of Rod Gilbert and Jean Ratelle from the Rangers of the 1970s. This duo could also rival Boston’s Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand as modern comparables, with both of them being QMJHL alums as well. Mercer has a lot of similarities to Marchand, minus the antagonism.

24) Pittsburgh Penguins — Lukas Cormier (LD, Canada, Charlottetown QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Pittsburgh takes Cormier to complete their trifecta of QMJHL defenders in this mock series, having previously picked Jeremie Poirier in mock 1.1 and Justin Barron in mock 4.1. Cormier is the least touted of the three but could emerge as the best. He is a clone of Colorado’s Samuel Girard and is also quite similar to Calen Addison, who the Penguins traded away to acquire Jason Zucker. Cormier won’t likely get to Kris Letang’s level, but he’d fit well with Marcus Pettersson and Pierre-Olivier Joseph on the left side of Pittsburgh’s blue line.

25) Philadelphia Flyers — John-Jason Peterka (LW, Germany, Munchen DEL)

ANALYSIS: Philadelphia takes Peterka in continuing to explore their options with eight different selections thus far. The Flyers have an impressive prospect pool with no real positional weaknesses, but Peterka brings a fairly unique skill-set with breakaway speed and an attacking mentality. He isn’t a sniper per se but likes to shoot and has scoring ability — similar to Travis Konecny and Joel Farabee in that sense. Peterka would be a nice addition for Philly’s future forward group, which will also feature Morgan Frost and Bobby Brink, among others.

26) Colorado Avalanche — Brendan Brisson (LC/LW, USA/Canada, Chicago USHL)

ANALYSIS: Colorado takes Brisson, who is already well known to Nathan MacKinnon since he is represented by Brisson’s father — super agent Pat Brisson. Brendan is well on his way to making his own name in the game, but that connection could help his chances of landing in Colorado. The Avs have a stellar prospect pool, including first-round centres Alex Newhook and Shane Bowers, but that wouldn’t stop them from selecting Brisson, who could shift to the wing as a pro. Brisson’s shot is his best asset and he could be a terrific wingman for Newhook in the future.

27) San Jose Sharks (Tampa Bay) — Mavrik Bourque (RC, Canada, Shawinigan QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: San Jose takes Bourque as their fourth different centre through eight scenarios — previously selecting Thomas Bordeleau, Jaromir Pytlik and Jack Finley. The Sharks may prioritize that position this year in order to address an organizational weakness going forward, with Joe Thornton’s career nearing the end and Barclay Goodrow traded to Tampa Bay at the deadline. Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl are still there as studs, but the future is less certain with the likes of Dylan Gambrell, Noah Gregor, Alex True and Sasha Chmelevski as potential centres in the system. Bourque would arguably become the best prospect among that group and at that position for San Jose.

28) Vegas Golden Knights — Vasily Ponomarev (LC, Russia, Shawinigan QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Vegas takes Ponomarev for much the same reasons as Marat Khusnutdinov in mock 7.1. Both the Russian centres could be on the radar for the Golden Knights, who already have Ivan Morozov as a promising prospect at that position in addition to 2019 first-rounder Peyton Krebs and 2017 first-rounder Cody Glass. Teams can never have enough centres and Ponomarev has similar potential to Morozov, who was Vegas’ top pick in 2018 as a second-rounder. Ponomarev is still adjusting to North America — playing behind Bourque, the previous pick, in Shawinigan — but he is a good bet to break out next season after shining for Russia at international tournaments during his draft year.

29) Washington Capitals — Martin Chromiak (LW, Slovakia, Kingston OHL)

ANALYSIS: Washington takes Chromiak as a high-upside forward who will be flanking Shane Wright — the potential first overall pick for 2022 — over the next couple seasons in Kingston. That won’t be lost on NHL teams and the fact Chromiak is among the youngest prospects in this 2020 class — one day younger than Quinton Byfield, with an August birthdate — will surely help his stock as well. The Capitals could certainly take a liking to Chromiak, who might remind them of Jakub Vrana or perhaps David Pastrnak. The ceiling is high for Chromiak and Washington could go back to the OHL after taking Connor McMichael from that league in last year’s first round (25th overall), which is looking like an excellent pick following his draft-plus-one campaign.

30) St. Louis Blues — Tyler Kleven (LD, USA, NTDP U18)

ANALYSIS: St. Louis takes Kleven as something of a polarizing prospect since there are scouts who feel he has a relatively low ceiling as a physical shutdown type, while others see a raw talent that might be just scratching the surface of his potential, which is why Kleven is in the first-round conversation. He is a hard hitter and a powerhouse — possessing some of the same tools as Erik Johnson, who the Blues took first overall back in 2006. But is Kleven much better or much different than Tyler Tucker, who St. Louis stole in the seventh round in 2018? That is the big question. If the answer is no, then the Blues would be better off going with Ryan O’Rourke, who they took in mock 5.1 and who offers more offensive upside than Kleven while still being able to shut down the opposition’s best. Braden Schneider would be another quality option as a shutdown beast with some similarities to Colton Parayko.

31) Anaheim Ducks (Boston) — Justin Barron (RD, Canada, Halifax QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Anaheim shockingly has their choice between three of the top right-handed defencemen in this year’s draft class — Barron, a former teammate of Bo Groulx and Antoine Morand, who were second-rounders for the Ducks in 2018 and 2017, respectively; Helge Grans, who they took in mock 4.1; and Braden Schneider, who they got in mock 6.1. In both those scenarios, Barron and the other were already gone, so the Ducks weren’t deciding between them. Faced with that decision, Anaheim goes with Barron, who boasts the most offensive upside among them. But the Ducks do love their Swedes, which could give Grans the edge despite that familiarity with Barron from last year’s Memorial Cup host team in Halifax. Either way, this would be the first scenario that has Schneider slipping out of the first round, which seems highly unlikely, but there are always surprises on draft day.

Recapping Results for Mock 8.1

1) Detroit Red Wings — Alexis Lafreniere (LW, Canada, Rimouski QMJHL)

2) Ottawa Senators — Quinton Byfield (LC, Canada, Sudbury OHL)

3) Ottawa Senators (San Jose) — Jamie Drysdale (RD, Canada, Erie OHL)

4) Los Angeles Kings — Yaroslav Askarov (G, Russia, SKA-Neva St. Petersburg VHL)

5) Anaheim Ducks — Cole Perfetti (LW/LC, Canada, Saginaw OHL)

6) New Jersey Devils — Marco Rossi (LC, Austria/Switzerland, Ottawa OHL)

7) Buffalo Sabres — Tim Stutzle (LC/LW, Germany, Adler Mannheim DEL)

8) Montreal Canadiens — Lucas Raymond (RW, Sweden, Frolunda SHL)

9) Chicago Blackhawks — Alexander Holtz (LW/RW, Sweden, Djurgardens SHL)

10) New Jersey Devils (via Arizona) — Jack Quinn (RW, Canada, Ottawa OHL)

11) Minnesota Wild — Jake Sanderson (LD, USA, NTDP U18)

12) Winnipeg Jets — Anton Lundell (LC, Finland, HIFK Liiga)

13) New York Rangers — Hendrix Lapierre (LC, Canada, Chicoutimi QMJHL)

14) Florida Panthers — Rodion Amirov (LW, Russia, Salavat Yulaev Ufa KHL)

15) Columbus Blue Jackets — Noel Gunler (RW/LW, Sweden, Lulea SHL)

16) Calgary Flames — Kaiden Guhle (LD, Canada, Prince Albert WHL)

17) Vancouver Canucks — Dylan Holloway (LC, Canada, Wisconsin NCAA)

18) Nashville Predators — Jan Mysak (LW, Czech Republic, Hamilton OHL)

19) Carolina Hurricanes (Toronto) — Connor Zary (LC, Canada, Kamloops WHL)

20) Edmonton Oilers — Seth Jarvis (RW, Canada, Portland WHL)

21) Ottawa Senators (N.Y. Islanders) — Theodor Niederbach (RC, Sweden, Frolunda J20)

22) Dallas Stars — Roni Hirvonen (LC, Finland, Assat Liiga)

23) New York Rangers (Carolina) — Dawson Mercer (RW, Canada, Chicoutimi QMJHL)

24) Pittsburgh Penguins — Lukas Cormier (LD, Canada, Charlottetown QMJHL)

25) Philadelphia Flyers — John-Jason Peterka (LW, Germany, Munchen DEL)

26) Colorado Avalanche — Brendan Brisson (LC/LW, USA/Canada, Chicago USHL)

27) San Jose Sharks (Tampa Bay) — Mavrik Bourque (RC, Canada, Shawinigan QMJHL)

28) Vegas Golden Knights — Vasily Ponomarev (LC, Russia, Shawinigan QMJHL)

29) Washington Capitals — Martin Chromiak (LW, Slovakia, Kingston OHL)

30) St. Louis Blues — Tyler Kleven (LD, USA, NTDP U18)

31) Anaheim Ducks (Boston) — Justin Barron (RD, Canada, Halifax QMJHL)

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