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Larry Fisher The Hockey Writers

Published on Tuesday, May 19, 2020

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2020 NHL Draft: First Round Mock Scenarios 10.1

This series, which started with top 10 scenarios, has expanded to the top 31 — to first round scenarios for the 2020 NHL Draft — by extending those 10 initial mocks, using the same results for the top 10 from running the Tankathon simulator for the draft lottery.

The debut edition elaborated on all the details and I’ve explained the rationale for the remainder of the draft order. I’ll be providing analysis for every new selection while linking repetitive picks back to their original mock for reference. I’ll try to keep it as fresh as possible and mix in some surprises — along with additional insight — but might shorten the analysis at times to ensure these mocks are published weekly (or as frequently as possible).

Without further ado, here is a recap of the top 10 from mock 10 followed by selections 11-31 for mock 10.1:

1) Montreal Canadiens — Alexis Lafreniere (LW, Canada, Rimouski QMJHL)

2) Chicago Blackhawks — Quinton Byfield (LC, Canada, Sudbury OHL)

3) Ottawa Senators — Tim Stutzle (LC/LW, Germany, Adler Mannheim DEL)

4) Detroit Red Wings — Lucas Raymond (RW, Sweden, Frolunda SHL)

5) Ottawa Senators (San Jose) — Marco Rossi (LC, Austria/Switzerland, Ottawa OHL)

6) Los Angeles Kings — Jamie Drysdale (RD, Canada, Erie OHL)

7) Anaheim Ducks — Alexander Holtz (LW/RW, Sweden, Djurgardens SHL)

8) New Jersey Devils — Jack Quinn (RW, Canada, Ottawa OHL)

9) Buffalo Sabres — Anton Lundell (LC, Finland, HIFK Liiga)

10) New Jersey Devils (via Arizona) — Cole Perfetti (LW/LC, Canada, Saginaw OHL)

RELATED:THW Writers Mock Draft

11) Minnesota Wild — Hendrix Lapierre (LC, Canada, Chicoutimi QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Minnesota takes Lapierre as a somewhat surprising selection, with the Wild wanting a centre and believing he is still the best player available at that position despite his concussion concerns. Minnesota has taken Anton Lundell four times and has also taken Dylan Holloway in mock 2.1 and Connor Zary in mock 5.1, but Lundell went in the top 10 in this scenario and the Wild feel Lapierre has a higher ceiling than the other two. Lapierre was touted as a top-10 talent for this draft class coming out of last summer’s Hlinka Gretzky Cup and has drawn comparisons to Patrice Bergeron.

12) Winnipeg Jets — Connor Zary (LC, Canada, Kamloops WHL)

ANALYSIS: Winnipeg takes Zary for the third time — a repeat pick from mock 4.1 and mock 7.1. The Jets are hoping Zary can replace Bryan Little as their second-line centre behind Mark Scheifele. There are similarities between Zary and Little in terms of their playing styles and, ironically, Little was also taken 12th overall back in 2006 when this franchise was still in Atlanta.

13) New York Rangers — Noel Gunler (RW/LW, Sweden, Lulea SHL)

ANALYSIS: The Rangers take Gunler for the third time — a repeat pick from mock 1.1 and mock 6.1. Gunler to the Rangers would be no surprise — he seems destined for the Rangers or the Canucks, who also took Gunler three times in this mock series. Gunler is a scorer who could work well with Mika Zibanejad and complement Kaapo Kakko as part of the Rangers’ future core.

14) Florida Panthers — Jake Sanderson (LD, USA, NTDP U18)

ANALYSIS: Florida takes Sanderson for the second time — a repeat pick from mock 2.1. Sanderson’s stock has been soaring since standing out at the Five Nations tournament in February and the All-American Prospects Game in January. He was arguably the MVP in both of those showcases and has been gaining momentum towards becoming a top-10 pick, so the Panthers would be pumped to land Sanderson here.

15) Columbus Blue Jackets — Yaroslav Askarov (G, Russia, SKA-Neva St. Petersburg VHL)

ANALYSIS: Columbus takes Askarov, who is by far the best goaltender available in this draft class and arguably the best player available at this spot. The Blue Jackets might be debating between two Russians here, with Rodion Amirov also worthy of consideration as a scoring forward, which is perhaps more of a need for Columbus in the future. The goaltending is in good shape with Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins platooning at the NHL level, plus the prospect trio of Matiss Kivlenieks, Veini Vehvilainen and Daniil Tarasov, but Askarov’s upside is superior to any of them. He has superstar potential as the best goaltending prospect to come through the draft since Carey Price went fifth overall in 2005.

16) Calgary Flames — Dylan Holloway (LC, Canada, Wisconsin NCAA)

ANALYSIS: Calgary takes Holloway for the second time — a repeat pick from mock 4.1. Holloway hails from the Calgary area and starred for AJHL Okotoks before heading off to Wisconsin for his draft year. He didn’t score much as a college freshman, but Holloway could explode as a sophomore and projects as a quality middle-six forward in the NHL. Holloway on the same line as Matthew Tkachuk would be a real handful for the opposition.

17) Vancouver Canucks — Rodion Amirov (LW, Russia, Salavat Yulaev Ufa KHL)

ANALYSIS: Vancouver takes Amirov for the second time — a repeat pick from mock 1.1. Amirov is, in a lot of ways, this year’s version of Vasily Podkolzin as the top Russian forward available for 2020. The Canucks took Podkolzin at 10th overall in 2019, so they could have quite the Russian pairing for the future by taking Amirov here. He is a puck hound and a hard worker at both ends of the ice with impressive finishing ability.

18) Nashville Predators — Justin Barron (RD, Canada, Halifax QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Nashville takes Barron for the second time — another repeat pick from mock 1.1. The Predators draft defencemen as well as anyone and will still see the upside in Barron despite his lengthy absence due to a blood clot that caused him to miss the World Juniors. It wasn’t the season that Barron envisioned, having entered his draft year as the biggest challenger to Jamie Drysdale for the top defenceman in 2020. Barron has been compared to Ryan Ellis and Thomas Chabot, with Nashville seeing him as a nice complement to Ellis and Dante Fabbro on their right side.

19) Carolina Hurricanes (Toronto) — Seth Jarvis (RW, Canada, Portland WHL)

ANALYSIS: Carolina takes Jarvis as one of the bigger risers in this draft class thanks to racking up 75 points over his final 37 games. Jarvis only had 23 points through 21 games before going on that tear — finishing with 98 points in 58 games, including 42 goals. Jarvis is a bit undersized at 5-foot-10, which could keep him out of the top 10, but he has the speed and elusiveness to alleviate those concerns. Jarvis would be a dynamic force on Sebastian Aho’s wing but could also drive his own line for the Hurricanes.

20) Edmonton Oilers — Helge Grans (RD, Sweden, Malmo J20)

ANALYSIS: Edmonton takes Grans as a future partner for Philip Broberg and a successor for Adam Larsson. Broberg and Grans could form an all-Swedish pairing similar to Oscar Klefbom and Larsson but potentially even better in their prime. There would be groans over Grans from the Oilers’ fan base, who will be hoping for a scoring forward this year instead of another defenceman in the first round. But Ken Holland knows defence wins championships and that the forward core is already in place for the most part. Evan Bouchard and Grans would solidify the right side of Edmonton’s defence for the next decade with Ethan Bear. In saying that, Holland could entertain trading down with plans to take one of the OHL snipers in Tyson Foerster or Jacob Perreault, one of the German wingers in J.J. Peterka or Lukas Reichel, or perhaps one of the Alberta boys in Carter Savoie or Jake Neighbours. Could Edmonton get two of those six forwards in the second round if a team with multiple picks wanted to move up? It’s possible, but the fan base might prefer the Oilers just take Jan Mysak or Dawson Mercer at this spot. Grans wouldn’t be the preferred pick here — nor the sexy pick — but he might be the right pick in the long run.

21) Ottawa Senators (N.Y. Islanders) — Dawson Mercer (RW, Canada, Chicoutimi QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Ottawa takes Mercer for the second time — a repeat pick from mock 2.1. The Senators see Mercer as the best player available in this scenario and foresee him forming a one-two punch with fellow Maritimer and QMJHL alum Drake Batherson on right wing. Mercer is shorter than Batherson but plays with the same determination to produce offensively.

22) Dallas Stars — Topi Niemela (RD, Finland, Karpat Liiga)

ANALYSIS: Dallas takes a new name in Niemela — the second-best right-handed defenceman from Europe behind Grans, who the Stars previously took in mock 8.1. Dallas has a need for right defence prospects to play behind John Klingberg — the Stars are much stronger on the left side, with Miro Heiskanen and 2019 first-rounder Thomas Harley for the future as well as Esa Lindell in the present — so Niemela fits the bill nicely. Braden Schneider would be another quality option in this scenario, but the Stars tend to prefer their Nordic defenders — both Swedes and Finns — which could have them leaning towards Niemela if Grans is gone.

23) New York Rangers (Carolina) — Theodor Niederbach (RC, Sweden, Frolunda J20)

ANALYSIS: The Rangers take Niederbach as an under-the-radar Swedish centre who missed all of last season to injury but made up for that lost development time by flashing first-round talent throughout his draft year. This may still be seen as a reach, but the Rangers can take a swing with their second selection of the first round and could potentially pair Niederbach with their top pick, Gunler. Those Swedes could become a dynamic duo down the road.

24) Pittsburgh Penguins — Kaiden Guhle (LD, Canada, Prince Albert WHL)

ANALYSIS: Pittsburgh takes Guhle as their best player available — a solid two-way defender with more upside than Marcus Pettersson and Pierre-Olivier Joseph as fellow top-40 picks expected to patrol the Penguins’ left side for the future. Guhle is more impactful and more powerful in terms of his skating, shooting and hitting. He’d be a better version of Brian Dumoulin, with a bit more offensive ability. Guhle should be something of a safe pick at this spot.

25) Philadelphia Flyers — Jan Mysak (LW, Czech Republic, Hamilton OHL)

ANALYSIS: Philadelphia takes Mysak as a faller in this scenario — snagging the Czech scorer who made an immediate impact in North America after crossing the pond following the World Juniors, where he also made a positive impression for the host nation. Mysak is a bit of a wild card for the first round, but the Flyers would be thrilled to get him here — especially with the uncertainty surrounding Oskar Lindblom’s future.

26) Colorado Avalanche — Martin Chromiak (LW, Slovakia, Kingston OHL)

ANALYSIS: Colorado takes Chromiak for the second time — a repeat pick from mock 1.1. The Avs are going for the home run here, swinging for the fences on a high-upside forward who will be flanking Shane Wright — the potential first overall pick for 2022 — over the next couple seasons in Kingston. Chromiak hit the ground running upon arriving in the OHL — coming overseas after the World Juniors, much like Mysak, though Chromiak was strangely snubbed by Slovakia. Chromiak is one of the younger prospects in this draft class with an August birthdate and could develop along the lines of David Pastrnak, but he is still a raw package with plenty of developing to be done. Chromiak would be in good hands in Colorado’s system, with no reason to rush him.

27) San Jose Sharks (Tampa Bay) — Brendan Brisson (LC/LW, USA/Canada, Chicago USHL)

ANALYSIS: San Jose takes Brisson as their sixth different centre in this mock series — perhaps saving their best for last, having previously taken Thomas Bordeleau, Jaromir Pytlik, Jack Finley, Mavrik Bourque and Ridly Greig. Brisson could have the most upside of that bunch — the highest offensive ceiling, though that is debatable. The Sharks are going to need some centres with offensive bite in the not-too-distant future and Brisson boasts one of the best one-timers in this draft class — proving to be a lethal weapon on the power play.

28) Vegas Golden Knights — Anton Johannesson (LD, Sweden, HV71 J20)

ANALYSIS: Vegas takes Johannesson in a shocking reach for another new name — taking him over his more touted defence partner Emil Andrae, who the Golden Knights took in mock 9.1, and over Braden Schneider, who anchors the blue line for Kelly McCrimmon’s junior team in Brandon and went to Vegas in mock 5.1. This selection of Johannesson may be hard to fathom because there hasn’t been a ton of hype for him — coming off an injury-plagued previous season — but he is one of the most offensively gifted defenders in this draft class, as far as becoming a power-play specialist and point producer from the back end. McKeen’s scout Jimmy Hamrin called Johannesson “the most skilled Swedish defenceman in this year’s draft. He has elite puck skills and is very smart with the puck. He skates with ease and can move around coast-to-coast with the puck. He is also a strong first pass defenceman and plays with confidence in tight situations. He processes the game well and has strong awareness.” That matches my eye test, which showed Johannesson to be more dynamic than Andrae in some recent viewings. Hamrin added that Johannesson “could sneak his way into the bottom of the first round or early second round.” Again, I agree, and Vegas could be one of the teams that have taken notice of Johannesson, having previously drafted Erik Brannstrom in the first round in 2017 from that same HV71 program.

29) Washington Capitals — Vasily Ponomarev (LC, Russia, Shawinigan QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Washington takes Ponomarev as a talented two-way centre who showed better at the international tournaments than in league play during his draft year. The adjustment to North America was a work in progress for Ponomarev, but he is a good bet to break out next season as a sophomore for Shawinigan. The Capitals are due to take a Russian forward in the first round, with Marat Khusnutdinov being the other candidate — he went to Washington in mock 5.1. There are similarities between Ponomarev and Khusnutdinov, but the Capitals could keep a closer eye on Ponomarev’s development as a CHL import. That could be a deciding factor.

30) St. Louis Blues — Braden Schneider (RD, Canada, Brandon WHL)

ANALYSIS: St. Louis takes Schneider as a shutdown beast with shades of Colton Parayko. That right side would be a no-go for Blues’ opponents with both Schneider and Parayko in the fold, but Schneider could potentially replace Parayko’s presence if he prices his way out of St. Louis in a couple years. That is a possibility — that Parayko will become unaffordable for the Blues when he reaches free agency in 2022 — and Schneider could step in sooner than later since he is further along in his development as one of the older prospects in this draft class.

31) Anaheim Ducks (Boston) — William Wallinder (LD, Sweden, MODO J20)

ANALYSIS: Anaheim takes Wallinder for the second time — a repeat pick from mock 2.1. The Ducks love their Swedish defenders, so selecting Wallinder wouldn’t be overly surprising. Anaheim already has a leftorium — an abundance of left-handed defencemen, both in the present and for the future — but the top-five righties are gone in this scenario. Those being Drysdale, Barron, Grans, Niemela and Schneider. So the Ducks would have to reach for Michael Benning or William Villeneuve — perhaps even Eamon Powell or Ruben Rafkin — if they wanted to address that issue of handedness and the need for more righties in their system. Trading down would be the way to go in accomplishing that, but Wallinder has more upside than any of those four and could wind up being a steal at the end of the first round.

Recapping Results for Mock 10.1

1) Montreal Canadiens — Alexis Lafreniere (LW, Canada, Rimouski QMJHL)

2) Chicago Blackhawks — Quinton Byfield (LC, Canada, Sudbury OHL)

3) Ottawa Senators — Tim Stutzle (LC/LW, Germany, Adler Mannheim DEL)

4) Detroit Red Wings — Lucas Raymond (RW, Sweden, Frolunda SHL)

5) Ottawa Senators (San Jose) — Marco Rossi (LC, Austria/Switzerland, Ottawa OHL)

6) Los Angeles Kings — Jamie Drysdale (RD, Canada, Erie OHL)

7) Anaheim Ducks — Alexander Holtz (LW/RW, Sweden, Djurgardens SHL)

8) New Jersey Devils — Jack Quinn (RW, Canada, Ottawa OHL)

9) Buffalo Sabres — Anton Lundell (LC, Finland, HIFK Liiga)

10) New Jersey Devils (via Arizona) — Cole Perfetti (LW/LC, Canada, Saginaw OHL)

11) Minnesota Wild — Hendrix Lapierre (LC, Canada, Chicoutimi QMJHL)

12) Winnipeg Jets — Connor Zary (LC, Canada, Kamloops WHL)

13) New York Rangers — Noel Gunler (RW/LW, Sweden, Lulea SHL)

14) Florida Panthers — Jake Sanderson (LD, USA, NTDP U18)

15) Columbus Blue Jackets — Yaroslav Askarov (G, Russia, SKA-Neva St. Petersburg VHL)

16) Calgary Flames — Dylan Holloway (LC, Canada, Wisconsin NCAA)

17) Vancouver Canucks — Rodion Amirov (LW, Russia, Salavat Yulaev Ufa KHL)

18) Nashville Predators — Justin Barron (RD, Canada, Halifax QMJHL)

19) Carolina Hurricanes (Toronto) — Seth Jarvis (RW, Canada, Portland WHL)

20) Edmonton Oilers — Helge Grans (RD, Sweden, Malmo J20)

21) Ottawa Senators (N.Y. Islanders) — Dawson Mercer (RW, Canada, Chicoutimi QMJHL)

22) Dallas Stars — Topi Niemela (RD, Finland, Karpat Liiga)

23) New York Rangers (Carolina) — Theodor Niederbach (RC, Sweden, Frolunda J20)

24) Pittsburgh Penguins — Kaiden Guhle (LD, Canada, Prince Albert WHL)

25) Philadelphia Flyers — Jan Mysak (LW, Czech Republic, Hamilton OHL)

26) Colorado Avalanche — Martin Chromiak (LW, Slovakia, Kingston OHL)

27) San Jose Sharks (Tampa Bay) — Brendan Brisson (LC/LW, USA/Canada, Chicago USHL)

28) Vegas Golden Knights — Anton Johannesson (LD, Sweden, HV71 J20)

29) Washington Capitals — Vasily Ponomarev (LC, Russia, Shawinigan QMJHL)

30) St. Louis Blues — Braden Schneider (RD, Canada, Brandon WHL)

31) Anaheim Ducks (Boston) — William Wallinder (LD, Sweden, MODO J20)

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