The Montreal Canadiens didn’t have Lady Luck on their side for the NHL Draft Lottery. The Habs will be selecting 9th overall, the exact position their final standing had them slotted for. Making it much worse is the fact that the Toronto Maple Leafs held onto the first overall pick and will likely be getting Auston Matthews. So today’s The Forum question: Are the Leafs now destined to pass the Canadiens as potential contenders in the near future?

Antoine (@HabsoluteTruth) – Sadly, Leafs management appears to be competent for the first time in God knows how long. Matthews is definitely a huge addition to their team going forward, but as long as they don’t get a top 10 caliber goalie in their organization, I don’t think they’ll be more successful than the Habs.

Damon (@DTA23) – Ask the Oilers!

Ian (@ihabs1995) – We need to be careful here. My knee jerk reaction is to respond to this like Washington Nationals all-star Bryce Harper: “That’s a clown question, bro.”

No, I don’t think the Toronto Maple Leafs are destined to do anything. There is so much uncertainty when it comes to the draft that projecting the future of an entire franchise, let alone any given player, is an exercise in futility. Even the first overall pick does not have any sort of certainty on most occasions.

Patrik Stefan, Alexandre Daigle, Rick DiPietro. All first overall picks, all generally considered busts. Prospects are just that; prospects. There is no sort of certainty in drafting.

On the other hand, the Leafs seem to have the best management core in the league at the moment. Shanahan. Lou. Babcock. That’s a trio who knows what the hell they’re doing, something Montreal can’t say right now.

I just have a hard time judging talent at such a young age, and therefore it’s hard to decide whether or not Toronto can jump Montreal in the near future. Could it happen? Sure. Next year? Nah. Year after that? Unlikely. Five years down the line? No comment…

Antoine (@HabsoluteTruth) – While I understand where you’re coming from Ian, I think time has proven more often than not that getting a first overall pick (or going through a full on rebuild for that matter) leads to a much more favourable and successful path long term. Yes, Stefan, Dipietro and Daigle were busts (although for the first two, injuries did them in) but since 2000, there hasn’t been a bust as far as first overall picks go (except for Yakupov in 2012, which was a pretty mediocre crop for forwards). With today’s ressources, in terms of scouting and how much access teams have as far as information goes and footage, it’s getting harder and harder for top picks to bust. As I’ve mentionned, since 2000, all the players who have been selected first overall have had/or are currently having a solid career. For all the Oilers, there are a Florida Panthers, Chicago Blackhawks, Pittsburgh Penguins, etc. Unlike the Oilers who were victims of an obvious country club, Toronto appears to be in good hands, sadly.

Ian (@ihabs1995) – Yakupov? He’s not looking so hot. All I’m arguing is that a 1st overall pick does not automatically make you a juggernaut. Only time will tell.

Antoine (@HabsoluteTruth) – I don’t disagree with you but Rielly is on his to become a top pairing defenseman. They also have Nylander & Marner who are both excellent up and coming prospects. As long as Toronto doesn’t go full Oilers a.k.a. not surround these kids with good veterans, Toronto should become a perennial playoff team two years from now.

CJ (@CJ_Casselman) – I suppose the response hinges on the definition of near future. No, the Leafs shouldn’t surpass the Habs in the next 2 years, however, their ceiling projects to be much higher. Where the Canadiens are likely to make the playoffs and maybe even win a round or two, the Leafs are building towards a Stanley Cup.

Bergevin seems content to assemble a quality team capable of making the playoffs, but lacking the coaching and personnel required to join the elite teams in the league. In fairness, there is risk in pushing your chips onto the table and making a play for greatness. The Rangers are recent examples, while Vancouver displays the downside of making such a failed move. Of course, by not going for it, you may never truly reach the pinnacle in sports. The Leafs, however, have tested the depths of futility and can begin their assent with an elasticity needed to reach far greater heights.

Personally, I think the Habs window is closing, not because of their own doing, but because the Sabres and Leafs are likely to rule the division in the next 3-5 years. That leaves Montreal with a 1-2 window. It is imperative that Bergevin act now. He balked earlier this month when choosing to continue the employ of the entire coaching staff. How he fares at the draft, in free agency and via the trade network in the next 3 months will ultimately define his tenure in Montreal. As for the Leafs, mock them at your own peril. The days of drafting Tyler Biggs are over. Toronto’s management team is better than Montreal’s and their willingness to adjust is just one example of them modernizing their approach to hockey operations.

Kyle (@kyleroussel) – Yes, the Leafs are well on their way to surpassing the Habs. Whether or not they strike gold with the number one pick is beside the point. Their new management group has made very strong decisions for more than a year now. They get it, and they’re coming.

Their salary cap is ready to be spent on quality players instead of the Bollands and Clarksons of the world. I know we want to tell ourselves anything and everything in order not to believe it, but it’s probably best to embrace the reality now so that we don’t wake up one day to see us looking up in the standings at the Leafs.

The Habs have a window as long as Price and Pacioretty are cheap and elite, but once that period is over, we’ll resemble the Rangers or Canucks, who delude themselves every year in to thinking they’re better than they really are.

Bergevin has to improve this team in a big way this summer because, as CJ said, the Sabres and Leafs are coming. Bergevin not only needs better talent, he needs to realize how stuck in the mud the Habs are from a philosophical standpoint.