General manager Doug Wilson has built the San Jose Sharks as a perennial contender. During his 17-year tenure, they have only missed the playoffs twice. The last time in 2014-15, they went to the Stanley Cup Final the very next year. Despite not making the expanded 24 team playoff in 2020, Wilson still believes his team will be a contender next season. Being a contender from year-to-year generally means you don’t have draft picks that are very high and this is true for the Sharks.

Since 2011, the Sharks have only picked in the first round six times. Three of them are no longer with the organization in Joshua Norris, Nikolay Goldobin, and Mirco Mueller. The other three, Tomas Hertl, Timo Meier, and Ryan Merkley turned out to be pretty good, well, the last is to be determined. Despite the lack of high picks, there is still reason for some optimism as there are some prospects that have a pretty bright future in this pyramid.

What is a Prospect Pyramid?

Sportsnet correspondent Steve Dangle first created the idea of a prospect pyramid for the Toronto Maple Leafs and has since become the new standard of sorting prospects in an organization. Dangle says that rather than trying to sort prospects in a numbered list, ranking them into tiers makes more sense than trying to decide who’s 15th and who’s 16th. The tiers look at their potential and group them accordingly rather than ranking them subjectively.

To explain the six tiers, here’s a written out breakdown, courtesy of THW’s own Brandon Share-Cohen:

Tier 1 – Elite talent (Rasmus Dahlin, Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid-level talent)

Tier 2 – Very, very good prospects with a real chance of being top-six forwards, top-two defenders or good starting goalies

Tier 3 – Good players who fall just short of tier 2, perhaps due to lower ceilings, but who are distinctly better than tier’s below them

Tier 4 – Distinct shot at making an NHL roster and being a contributor (top-nine forward, bottom-four defender, fringe starter or backup goaltenders

Tier 5 – Players who likely don’t project to be anything more than a role player in the NHL as their ceiling – these players chances of making the NHL aren’t very high compared to their comrades (sometimes due to being relatively unknown at this point)

Tier 6 – Players who have an uphill battle to make the NHL, or there isn’t enough information to make an informed decision

Also, there’s always talk about who classifies as a prospect. The Athletic’s Corey Pronman uses a good definition in his work, which I will apply here:

“A skater no longer qualifies as an NHL prospect if he has played 25 games in the NHL in any campaign, regular season and playoffs combined, or 50 games total; or reaches age 27 by Sept. 15.

“A goalie no longer qualifies as an NHL prospect if he has played 10 games in the NHL in any campaign, regular season and playoffs combined, or 25 games total; or reaches age 27 by Sept. 15.” (From: “Pronman: 2019-20 NHL Farm System Rankings”).

Additions, Subtractions, and Graduates

Although this is the inaugural Sharks Prospect Pyramid, there were some included in the farm system rankings previously updated in January of 2020. Since then, there have made some key signings without any significant losses. Even though the Sharks’ have one of the lower-ranked prospect pools, they remain a destination where players want to sign, especially those from Europe and Russia.

There are two main reasons, for one the San Francisco Bay is an attractive area of the world in which to reside, and for the other, the salary cap troubles of the Sharks means they have to give opportunities to players who are willing to sign entry-level deals.

Additions

Trades: Anthony Greco 

Free Agents: Fredrik Handemark, Alexei Melnichuk, Brinson Pasichnuk 

Draft: None 

Subtractions

Trades: None

Free Agency: Lukas Radil 

Graduates

Played more than 25 games: Mario Ferraro, Noah Gregor, Joel Kellman Played more than 50 games, overall: Lukas Radil

Tier 1: Empty

Most teams don’t have a top tier prospect and considering the Sharks have not selected higher than 9th overall (Meier) in the last 10 years, it shouldn’t be a surprise. Most players in this tier are drafted first overall, something the Sharks have never done. The only player the Sharks have had in his prime that might have qualified for this tier is Joe Thornton, whom they acquired in a trade with the Boston Bruins. This is an incredibly hard tier to join and the way the Sharks seem to like to trade away their 1st round picks, I’m not sure they will ever have a prospect in it.

Tier 2: Merkley, Blichfeld, Chmelevski, Leonard, Kniazev, & Melnichuk

Even though the Sharks have no one in tier one, this tier is full of potential. Everyone in this tier could be a top-end contributor to the Sharks in relatively short order. What is especially exciting is that there are forwards, defensemen, and one goalie in this tier. That kind of balance is what you need to continue to field a playoff contender year after year. Especially since none of these players other than Merkley were first-round picks. Let’s dig into the outlook of Merkley, Joachim Blichfeld, Sasha Chmelevski, John Leonard, Artemi Kniazev, and Alexei Melnichuk.

Merkley is considered by many to be the lone true gem of a prospect in the Sharks’ system. Though he clearly has a bit of a checkered past and murky future, there is no denying he is an elite talent. Drafted 21st overall in 2018 by the Sharks, the right-handed shot rearguard will be behind Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson on the depth chart, but will also get to learn from two Norris Trophy winners. Kevin Kurz of The Athletic has speculated that Burns might either get moved in a trade or be exposed to the Seattle expansion draft. (from “A 9-step plan for making the Sharks a playoff team again next season,” The Athletic 05/07/2020)

Either way, Merkley will have to prove he can excel at professional hockey in the AHL before he can prove himself in the NHL. One thing is for certain, the Sharks will be extra patient and give him every opportunity. He has elite offensive potential, but the defensive aspect of his game might never be better than average. He has seemed to put past transgressions behind him as the move to the London Knights of the OHL has proved he can focus on hockey without being a distraction to the team.

According to Hockey Prospecting, Merkley had equal to Quinn Hughes in terms of star potential. That number has faded since but still sits at sixth-best amongst a crop of budding NHL stars like Rasmus Dahlin, Andrei Svechnikov, Brady Tkachuk, and Evan Bouchard. This type of hype and projected star power will give Merkley about the longest leash you can imagine to be an impactful NHL regular.

Blichfeld, more than anyone has shot up the depth chart of the prospect pyramid for the Sharks. The 2016 seventh-round pick (210th overall) just completed his first year of professional hockey in the AHL posting 32 points in 44 games and earning a selection as an All-Star. He was one of the lone bright spots for a Barracuda team that struggled. The large frame Dane broke out in his 3rd year of the WHL for the Portland Winterhawks improving his point per game (PPG) pace in 2017-18 to much closer to two PPG (1.68) in 2018-19.

Blichfeld is blazing fast and his mind can process the game nearly as quickly. In his three-game stint with the Sharks this season, he did not look out of place. Obviously a three-game sample size is incredibly small, but per Evolving Hockey, Blichfeld generated 3.13 turnovers per 60 minutes, which would place him in the top 20 of the league in 2019-20.

Being able to play either wing should help Blichfeld make an impact with the Sharks earlier than later. He certainly has the tools to be a top-six player, but might settle in as a third-line energy player too. His game reminds me of Nikolaj Ehlers, and not just because they are both Danish.

Chmelevski’s development is a path you might imagine most prospects would take, slow and steady. While he has never been an elite scorer at the junior level, he made steady progress in the OHL over four seasons. His last season playing for the Ottawa 67’s was great, scoring 75 points in 56 games and 31 points in 18 playoff games as the team fell just short of an OHL championship. 2019-20 was his first full year with the Barracuda and he was good for 27 points in 42 games.

Chmelevski’s biggest weakness is his skating, which has steadily improved, even though he will never be considered fast. His best asset is his mind, he is able to position himself well and make efficient movements with his skating and usually negates the need for quick, agile movement of which he’s not so capable.

In my prospect profile of him, I compare him to Anthony Cirelli of the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Sharks would be elated if he could become a player of similar ilk. I doubt he will ever be a big scorer in the NHL, but he does project to be a top-six forward, probably a center and that is something the Sharks need in a hurry, perhaps rushing his development a bit.

The Sharks may have hit on a true gem in the latter part of the 2018 draft taking Leonard in the sixth round (182nd overall), something they’ve made a habit of under Doug Wilson. He has a unique skill set in that he is a goal-scorer, purer than anyone else in the system. Named as a finalist for the Hobey Baker Award as the top player in collegiate hockey, Leonard amassed an impressive 27 goals and 37 points in just 33 games for UMass (Amherst).

This was after a 40 point in 40 game sophomore campaign for the native of Amherst, Massachusetts. He signed his two-year entry-level contract with the Sharks on March 31st, 2020. He will begin his professional career with the Sharks in 2020-21 and depending on how that goes, he may get an earlier opportunity with the Sharks who are starving for cheap secondary scoring. I think Leonard’s skills will translate well to professional hockey, he surely has the competitive fire to continue to improve if it doesn’t.

Kniazev (sometimes spelled Knyazev) is a recent draft pick, 2019 second round (48th overall). The Russian left-handed defenseman, who is slightly undersized at 5-foot-11 did everything he could to justify that early selection by the Sharks this past season. He improved his point totals for Chicoutimi Sagueneens of the QMJHL from 34 points in 55 games in 2018-19 to 43 points in 51 games in 2019-20. Kniazev excelled at the summer U20 tournament in Sochi in 2020, named the top defenseman amongst his peers.

He is an excellent skater and can create offense from the back end. The depth chart on the left side is pretty open for the Sharks currently being held by underachieving Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Radim Simek, and Mario Ferraro. Ferraro certainly has long term upside, but Kniazev might be battling him for top-pairing minutes in a couple of years. This next year in the AHL will be an important one for his development.

Melnichuk is the player who is the newest to the organization to find himself in this tier. He is a 22-year-old undrafted Russian player who has been developing in the SKA St. Petersburg system that has produced young phenom Igor Shestyorkin  (sometimes spelled Shesterkin) and projected 2020 1st rounder Yaroslav Askarov. He only has 16 games of KHL experience, but after going 8-5-1 with 1.68 goals-against average (GAA) and a .930 save percentage (SV%) the Sharks were the lucky winners of the Melnichuk sweepstakes.

Despite being so young, he has the upside of being a star NHL starter. Of course, he has a lot to prove, especially since he has yet to play a minute of hockey on North American soil. He is so good technically, especially down low, yet he can be very athletic when needed. Despite his youth, I have him at the top of the Sharks pyramid for goalies. He will compete for minutes in the AHL this season and if all goes right, should be in the NHL within one to two years.

Tier 3: Chekhovich, Dahlen, Spiridonov, Pasichnuk, Korenar, & Emond

Like the tier above, tier three has players with a fair amount of potential. If it weren’t for some unfortunate circumstances or slight regression this past season, they could have very easily been in the tier above. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if one or more of the players in this tier surpassed one or two of the players in tier two. The tier three players are Ivan Chekhovich, Jonathan Dahlen, Yegor Spiridonov, Brinson Pasichnuk, Josef Korenar, and Zachary Emond.

Chekhovich was taken in the seventh round in 2017 (212th overall), the same year the Sharks took Chmelevski. The fact that he’s even this high in the pyramid is a testament to the scouting, drafting, and development of the Sharks.

It’s understandable why he slipped so far as he put up just under a point per game for the Baie-Comeau Drakkar of the QMJHL in his draft year. He followed that up with a disappointing 60 points in 65 games the following season, though his stellar nine points in six games for the Barracuda were eye-popping. In 2018-19, he popped 105 points in 66 games and another seven points in nine games for the Barracuda, including the playoffs.

His transition to a full-time AHL player was a little rough as he only managed 12 points in 42 games. As an undersized player measuring 5-foot-10, he will need to work much harder against bigger and stronger competition. The 2020-21 season will be very telling for the seesaw nature of his progression. Will he rebound and regain his trajectory toward a top-six player or continue down the path toward a bottom sixer? It will be fun to watch and find out. I have my reservations.

Dahlen is the son of former Shark Ulf Dahlen, who had a very successful NHL career. The younger Dahlen has had a bit of a rollercoaster of development after being drafted 42nd overall by the Ottawa Senators in 2016. The Senators traded him to the Vancouver Canucks for Alexandre Burrows. After a couple of years frustrated that he wasn’t being called up and playing pretty well for the Utica Comets of the AHL, Dahlen was traded to the Sharks for Linus Karlsson, a player with a higher floor, but lower ceiling.