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Dobber Hockey Dobber Sports

Published on Monday, July 13, 2015

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July 13 2015

The impact of Sharp and Saad on Hossa; Saad in Columbus, Stewart in Anaheim;  and more...

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When a key player is traded in the offseason, one of the first things I look at is how other key players on his former team performed when he was out of the lineup. Even if they don't play on the same line, the absence is felt by all in terms of shifting lines around as well as PP and PK units. Fortunately, in the case of Patrick Sharp, he was out of the lineup for 14 games last year. That's a decent sample size, as well as can be expected anyway. Toews had 12 points in those 14 games and Kane had 17 points in those games. So pretty much status quo for those guys. But when I looked at Hossa, he had 14 in 14. And although that's only a two- or three-point jump from his pace, it was also interesting to note that he had four PP points (0.29 per game) versus the rest of the season when he had 16 (0.24). Again, very small and not overly - but a little - significant. At the very least it tells me that Hossa won't be any worse off and could be a little better with an expanded PP role.

The Saad deal is another matter. Not only did he not miss time for us to analyze, but he actually played on Hossa's line. In fact, of Hossa's 61 points, 38 of them (62%) were with Saad on the ice with him. The line of Toews - Hossa - Saad is broken up. And although we get the feeling that we could stick the hot dog vendor on that line with Toews and Hossa and the two stars will be just fine, it's probably not the case. You need talent there. And the only pure talent on the wing (other than Kane, who they'll keep on a separate line) is Artemy Panarin and Teuvo Teräväinen. So it's likely that Teräväinen gets the job and stands to break out in a big way if that happens.

Panarin, by the way, I have starting in the AHL and coming up midseason. He's on a two-year deal so I really like him as a prospect to own. Very high end skill. But I have low expectations for his first year in North America. Patience.

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As for Saad, I think he makes an excellent 'sell high' player. At best he plays with Ryan Johansen and Nick Foligno. That's at best. And if he clicks there, then the Toews to Johansen we can call a wash. And Hossa to Foligno we'll call a wash. So at best, his linemates are equally conducive to helping him produce. It's his fourth year, so maybe he inches up to 60 points. But that's best-case. And I prefer to go with medium-case. That is, he'll click sometimes, sometimes he won't. He'll bounce from first to second to third line and back. And in the end, finishes with around 50 points. Meanwhile, the people in your league will see the huge contract he signed, and feel the hype and buzz of the trade, and probably pay the world for him. So accept their gift of 'the world'.

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The Leafs acquired checking-line forward Taylor Beck from Nashville for Jamie Devane. Coincidentally, Devane was drafted 68th overall in 2009 and Beck was drafted two picks later at 70. While Devane is a tough guy who probably doesn't have a big NHL future, Beck has 85 NHL games under his belt and a history of scoring. He boasts NHL size, too. And although his junior production didn't translate to the AHL, he still produced enough to thrive as a second-liner at that level. But at the NHL level, at least for Nashville, his numbers are more for the fourth line. In Toronto though, he'll be on the third.

He filed for arbitration, which apparently means that the Leafs can get a second buyout window. This would allow the team to trade with another team and acquire that team's bad contract and then buy him out - while pocketing the extra asset paid to them for doing that favor.

Beck's fantasy profile can be found here, last updated in October but still lots of interesting tidbits in there.

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I'll weigh in on the Chris Stewart signing. There was a mix-up in coverage because he was signed late on Saturday, so Neil and Ian each thought the other would take care of it, but the analysis article will be up today. But I love this signing. While I wouldn't put money on Stewart flourishing and posting 60 or even 50 points, I do think this is a great fit for him. And I think he's a much better fit on the top line than either Carl Hagelin or Patrick Maroon. A real strong chance of succeeding there.

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One great way to get my 10th annual Fantasy Hockey Guide for cheap is to just take advantage of the Draft Kings deal. Get everything for 10 bucks. No tax added and three of the other guides are added free.

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I'm working on the Guide (of course) and Sunday finished Colorado's analysis and I have to ask - what are they doing? Last summer, the fancy stats said that they had trouble getting the puck (and keeping it) into the offensive zone. The worry was that they may not continue getting lucky and make the playoffs. Sure enough, they did not - and again they had a low offensive zone start ratio. They were forced to trade Ryan O'Reilly, who was one of the three best possession forwards and the players they've been signing (or getting in return for O'Reilly) were middling at best in this area. And on defense Francois Beauchemin is a good replacement and upgrade to Jan Hejda. While Nikita Zadorov is a talented kid with a lot of upside, last year he was the most sheltered player on Buffalo's roster. I mean, if MacKinnon and Duchene don’t take a huge step forward and become the stars they can be, this team may be in trouble. It's been well known that the Avs have been terrible at developing goaltenders up until about three years ago. Justin Goldman was always complaining that they were out of touch by not have a goalie coach. Now it seems that they're slow in getting an analytics department together? 

 

 


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