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Saturday, July 18
Metro Division offense, Rankings talk and more …
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One of the nice things about this gig is not jumping out of the fantasy hockey thought process or loop. Typically during the summers, I'm full-time baseball coverage with a dash of NFL.
As I've started editing and posting content at TheFakeHockey.com, a particular bust blurb got me thinking.
In his Metropolitan Division Busts article, Ben Benwell noted the high-scoring offenses within the division were a concern for Steve Mason's fantasy stock. After all, you play teams within your division more than those outside it.
Stick tap, Ben, it is a nice point and something worth considering during draft preparation and while preparing rankings.
Last season, the Central Division was the highest scoring in five-on-five goals per team, and it was an easy lock for the best division. Five of seven teams made the playoffs, and the Dallas Stars likely would have, if they played in the Eastern Conference.
Interestingly, three of the top-10 goalies (Devan Dubnyk, Pekka Rinne and Corey Crawford), according to ESPN's Player Rater, were from the Central Division.
The Metropolitan Division finished second in five-on-five goals per team, and six goalies from the division finished inside the top 15 of ESPN's Player Rater. Braden Holtby, Cory Schneider, Henrik Lundqvist, Marc-Andre Fleury, Steve Mason and Cam Talbot all cracked the mark.
For comparison sake, the Atlantic Division had five goalies inside the top 15, and the Pacific Division had just Jonathan Quick.
Obviously, injuries and timeshares had an impact, and the ESPN Player Rater is far from the dogma of fantasy evaluation, but it has merit.
So, backtracking to the original point, how much stock should be put into the division a goalie plays in?
Likely minimal, but the Metropolitan Division does look like a shooting gallery.
The Pittsburgh Penguins added offense without improving their defense.
The New York Rangers are still three lines deep offensively.
The Washington Capitals are at worst as good offensively as they were last season.
The New York Islanders are young and lean towards high-event games.
The Columbus Blue Jackets, if healthy, are going to be really good.
The Philadelphia Flyers will continue to have one of the best power plays.
The Carolina Hurricanes were possession beasts in the second half last year.
The New Jersey Devils …. Well ...
The Division has five really good teams, and Philadelphia can score. Of the five really good teams, the Penguins are the only one without potential breakout candidates ready to enter their prime.
The Rangers have Chris Kreider and Kevin Hayes.
The Capitals have Evgeny Kuznetsov and Andre Burakovsky.
The Islanders have Ryan Strome, Brock Nelson and Anders Lee.
The Blue Jackets have Ryan Johansen, Brandon Saad and Cam Atkinson.
The answer to the question, for me, is I'm not quite as intrigued by Braden Holtby, Sergei Bobrovsky, Cory Schneider, and especially Marc-Andre Fleury. Henrik Lundqvist is still a top-five lock, though.
Instead of reaching for Holtby, something I was considering likely, perhaps it might be best to wait out and take the remaining option from that tier.
While, it is still early, and last season's goalie results based on goals from each division didn't suggest the highest-scoring divisions negatively impacted fantasy results for goaltenders in them, it is worth keeping in mind.
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Early Top-15 Goalie Rankings and Tiers
1. Carey Price
2. Devan Dubnyk, Henrik Lundqvist, Pekka Rinne, Corey Crawford, Braden Holtby
3. Jonathan Quick, Cory Schneider, Ben Bishop, Frederik Andersen, Sergei Bobrovsky
4. Marc-Andre Fleury, Tuukka Rask, Roberto Luongo, *Ryan Miller
* Yikes --- that Miller inclusion seems high/generous.
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NHL.com fantasy analyst Matt Cubeta's top-200 rankings are out. It is easy to sit back and pick apart someone's rankings, especially when your own aren't completed, but a few things stuck out as talking points.
Patrick Kane, 6th - Is he a first-round talent, absolutely, but Kane has one career 30-goal campaign and missed 34 games over the past two seasons. He is small, and he had played a lot of hockey since entering the league -- 116 playoff and 12 Olympic games. This is at least one round too early.
Rick Nash, 18th - In the middle of the second round, Nash is a safe selection. It enters steal territory if you believe he'll flirt with 40 goals. However, I suspect Nash could slide further in drafts, which will likely depend on when the goalie runs happen. He looks a lot more appealing closer to the Round 2-3 turn.
Zach Parise, 25th - At 30, and without a 0.85-points-per-game season on his resume over his past four campaigns, this seems incredibly high for Parise. He stands to chip in across all categories, but a 70-point season may be asking a lot.
Pavel Datsyuk, 29th - Clearly missed the injury update.
David Backes, 38th - His ice time has dropped three consecutive seasons, and consistently matching up against the oppositions top players isn't exactly a fantasy boon. Backes is 31, too. And it wouldn't be shocking to see him bumped from the No. 1 power-play unit. The cross-category production is great, but does it warrant an early fifth-round selection?
Henrik Sedin, 54th - This is insanely high. He doesn't score, he doesn't shoot, he doesn't take penalties, and the Canucks project to be worse next season. You're paying a premium at the deepest position for assists. Don't be that guy. Sedin is also 35.
Victor Hedman, 57th - He is the seventh ranked defenseman, which isn't crazy talk. However, there are a handful of forwards ahead of him who likely won't top him in points. That alone makes Hedman's rank too low.
Jaden Schwartz, 88th - Schwartz is going to top teammate Backes is every category except penalty minutes, yet he is ranked 50 slots lower. Schwartz's first 70-point season should go down next season, and this ranking screams value. Doesn't it?
There is a thread at the forum about the rankings.
Connor McDavid at 63rd overall seems low. I personally won't own him because of my draft preferences. I prefer to land a goal-scoring winger or two and a goaltender early.
So, McDavid would have to hang around. Sidney Crosby, John Tavares, Evgeni Malkin, Claude Giroux, Ryan Getzlaf and Nicklas Backstrom are likely the only centers I'd be willing to take in the first three rounds. And that is working under the assumption Tyler Seguin and Steven Stamkos will carry winger eligibility.
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The Penguins are going to be a lot of fun to watch next season. It will be really interesting to see how their defense will hold up, and that power play, well … yea. It'll be exciting.
Mike hit up some Chris Kunitz talk yesterday.
David Perron and Derrick Pouliot made headlines this week, too, though. Both are training this offseason to enter training camp better prepared.
Perron is working on his foot speed and skating, and Pouliot is training with Gary Roberts to improve his fitness.
Many players train in the offseason, but there aren't too many that'll share the ice with the high-end talents in Pittsburgh. Furthermore, both clearly realized the pace and expectations are a little different with No. 87 wearing the C.
Phil Kessel may be in for a little shock, as well.
Pouliot is really intriguing, but assuming Olli Maatta and Kris Letang are healthy, Pouliot is a little down the depth chart, likely.
Perron, meanwhile, could have a career year. Sometimes it takes time to mesh with new linemates, and while there were signs last year, he never took full flight. At the same time, though, Perron will not be a key cog on the No. 1 power-play unit, and that puts a damper on his upside.
Training camp will be telling in Pittsburgh.
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