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Saturday, July 25
The case for Wayne Simmonds, Braden Holtby's re-sign and Alex Semin will sport new digs …
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I highly recommend making Wayne Simmonds a target in your drafts this fall. Expect a slight value to present itself with Simmonds missing a few games last season and his point total dropping to 50, too.
He is one of the better rotisserie wingers available, outside the slight plus/minus hit he brings annually. He is a high-volume shooter, he takes plenty of penalties, and most importantly, he is attached to the potent Philadelphia No. 1 power-play unit.
Since joining the Flyers for 2011-12 season, Simmonds has 80 power-play points with 46 of them being of the goal variety. He has just 54 even-strength goals, which is obviously a little bit of a concern should he ever be shifted to the No. 2 unit. Still, that is highly unlikely given his dominance in the role.
Those power-play points and penalty minutes are huge boosts in the middle rounds, and with Simmonds not boasting top-line status with the Flyers, he could be overlooked for that reason, too. Don't sleep on No. 17 in orange, and don't let him sleep in drafts.
Who knows how the Philadelphia top six will shake out, but Brayden Schenn and Simmonds are a tough load to handle, especially if Schenn takes another step forward. Sam Gagner would be a sneaky sidekick for the duo, given his playmaking upside. Though, I still suspect Gagner will receive a look with Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek.
Michael Raffl, then, seems like the other option, and he has been a fine offensive contributor in a limited sample size. He did post 21 goals last year, and he does have 54.1 CorsiF%, which isn't too shabby for a player's first two seasons. Also, it is worth noting Raffl will turn 27 midseason.
All said, those power-play minutes make Simmonds a second-tier winger in fantasy leagues, and his upside for 30 goals, 85 penalty minutes and 25 power-play points come with a relatively high floor. Target Simmonds as the third winger in your stable, and if you've loaded up elsewhere, he could fill the shoes of a No. 2 winger.
In all situations over the past two seasons, Simmonds ranks 59th in Points per 60 minutes with a 2.5 mark and 20th in goals per 60 minutes with a 1.3 mark. At five on five, things change drastically, though, Simmonds drops to 210th in P/60 at 1.57 and 218th in G/60 with a 0.66 mark.
So while that highlights the importance of his power-play production, it might also highlight room for improvement for his even-strength numbers. There is reason to be skepitcal about his linemates, but Sean Couturier, Matt Read and Scott Laughton were Simmonds most frequent companions after Schenn last year.
Simmonds will skate with better offensive company next year and return better numbers. Make him a priority in the middle rounds this fall.
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Braden Holtby was paid, and it wasn't outrageous. In fact, it was an extremely team-friendly number and term. A five-year, $6.1 million deal takes Holtby through the 2019-20 season when he'll be 30.
Holtby asked for $8 million through salary arbitration, and the Capitals offered $5.1 million, so why did Holtby change his tune so much?
Here is my take …
At 30, Holtby'll have another shot at a payday, and potentially, a bigger one. We don't know where the league will be at in five years, and specifically, where the salary cap will sit. He could have a nice resume by then, too.
In the short term, Holtby hasn't handcuffed the Capitals. Washington has ample bodies under contract with the cap space to re-sign Marcus Johansson. They also have the makings of being an Eastern Conference powerhouse for at least another two or three years.
Plus, when Brooks Laich, Justin Williams and T.J. Oshie come off the books, Washington will have all kinds of cap space to re-up Evgeny Kuznetsov and Andre Burakovsky, if that is their plan of action.
This is a really solid hockey team, and they might be better than they have ever been over the next two years. Holtby helped a lot by not going outrageous with his demands.
Lock Holtby in as a top-five goalie in the real and fake game for the foreseeable future, and it isn't out of the question to suggest that his previously mentioned resume will boast a Stanley Cup and Vezina Trophy when he is ready for his next pay day.
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Alexander Semin signing with the Montreal Canadiens makes tremendous sense, I assume the delay was Semin hoping for more money, but who knows. Cliffy, as always, hit the nail on the head with the no-risk, all-upside nature of the move yesterday.
One angle Mike didn't take was the comparison with Alexei Kovalev's tenure in Montreal, which I bring up because both Kovalev and Semin joined the Candiens in their early 30s.
Listen, I realize generalizations don't really fly often, but there are enough commonalities here to connect the two. Both were/are highly talented players who have had their work ethic questioned and entered a critical hockey market at the same time of their careers after unspectacular play.
Kovalev had a yo-yo run in Montreal, but overall, he posted 264 points -- 103 goals -- over 314 games, and he wasn't rolling with the highest quality of teammates, either. Point being, Semin is joining a solid team to be a contributor. Kovalev needed to be the go-to guy.
Semin, as Mike outlined yesterday, is a fine offensive hockey player. Expect Semin to return similar numbers to his career averages with Montreal. Over an 82-game season, approximately 25 goals and 35 assists are extremely reasonable expectations. Perhaps, a 20-40 tilt might be more fitting, but either way, count on a bounce-back campaign from Semin in Montreal. Though, there will likely be peaks and valleys similar to those Kovalev returned.
Semin just spent three seasons playing in front of roughly 12,000 fans a night in Raleigh, North Carolina. Expect the culture shock of a jam-packed Bell Centre with nearly 22,000 fans to ignite a spark in him. Playing for a winning team won't hurt, either. Plus, he has a few countrymen to chum with now, which is something he didn't have with the Hurricanes.
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Enjoy the weekend folks.
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