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The Subban Trade Isn’t That Bad
Millions of hearts broke last night after the announcement of PK Subban‘s departure from Montreal and the acquisition of Shea Weber. I won’t write too much on how much Subban meant to the fanbase and the whole province of Quebec as my colleagues have done, and will continue to do a great job, summing up what Subban represented to Habs fans across the nation.
That being said, I was not among the fans who were sad, angry or in disbelief after the trade was made. I was just simply indifferent to the whole thing. My mind had shut out the possibility of Subban being traded when nothing happened at the draft; but oh God was I wrong on that one.
I have learned, especially after the way Saku Koivu was unfairly treated following years of service, that this is a business and I shouldn’t get emotionally attached to the players. That’s why I’m a bit baffled by the fans that claim to be ‘done’ with this team. I cheer for the logo in the front, not the name on the back. For some this might be the equivalent of the Patrick Roy disaster, but I think those people are being dishonest with themselves. They seem to forget the fact that the team received Shea Weber, a defenseman widely regarded as being top 10 in the league, in return for Subban. Was Weber one-for-one in a Subban trade unexpected? Hell yeah, but I prefer that package to a package involving a bunch of prospects or picks, or even a winger like Taylor Hall (patching one hole to create another one).
I will do my best to sum up why this deal is hardly the disaster that fans are painting it to be.
- The team isn’t worse nor is it better today, it’s just different.
As I’ve pointed out earlier, Weber is in the same tier as Subban in my opinion, they’re both top 10 in the league. Weber is more reliable in his own end, has a much more accurate shot and is an intimidating presence à la Scott Stevens. He brings a presence that hasn’t been felt on the team since Sheldon Souray left to sign with the Edmonton Oilers. Subban is more versatile in his offense, a much better skater and has more ability to change the outcome of a game with his talent.
Weber can clear the crease and protect the team’s most important player: Carey Price. This has been a huge problem ever since Price established himself as one the league’s elite goalies. Make no mistake that teams have ‘bother, hit and fall on Price as much as you can’ in their game plans. After it happens more than two or three times, it’s no longer a coincidence. Our MVP obviously has a target on his back, as unethical as it may sound.
The team’s man advantage will also be better than it was when the Habs had Subban. As has often been pointed out, Weber’s shot is much more accurate. He’s is fourth among defensemen in total shots since the 2010-11 season (1229, compared to Subban’s 1078), trailing Erik Karlsson, as well as Brent Burns and Dustin Byfuglien, both of whom played forward in that time span. He also has 50 powerplay goals in that time span, 15 more than the next defender on the list. Weber will also bring much needed offense to a team that needs some since he’s hit the 20-goal mark on three separate occasions. Here’s an interesting tidbit: last season our defensemen scored 23 goals, Weber scored 20 on his own.
- Shea Weber is not over-the-hill
That’s one argument that kept coming up on social media last night and it kept making me shake my head. Yeah, Weber is three-and-a-half years older than Subban, but it doesn’t mean that just because he’s over 30, his game is going to magically deteriorate. His best years are not ‘behind’ him, he’s in the midst of this best years now. Weber is a future Hall of Famer and he’s almost in the same tier as guys like Chris Pronger, Larry Robinson, Scott Stevens and Rob Blake. My question is why is it that those guys were able to remain effective until their late 30s, but we expect Weber won’t? These guys played in much more grueling eras and Weber, other than one minor knee injury, has never been seriously injured.
Was Weber exposed in the playoffs? Sure, but that doesn’t mean that he’s on the decline and that he’s no longer a number one defenseman. Any player can hit a rough patch throughout their careers. Was Ryan Getzlaf done after 2011-12 when he had just 11 goals and 57 points in 82 GP? Was Patrick Marleau done after 2007-08, when he had 19 goals and 48 points in 78 GP? Was Rob Blake done after his second stint with the Los Angeles Kings in 2007-08? The answer to all these questions is no. Sometimes a coach’s system, personal issues, or just a bad year in general can give the impression a player is a ‘done’ when that’s far from being the case.
The move from the Western Conference to the less physical Eastern Conference will help Weber’s longevity in my opinion. I believe Weber has four or five more Norris caliber years in him. Do we lose this trade long term? Absolutely and I’d be a total homer if I said otherwise but our window isn’t any shorter or longer than it was when the team had PK instead of Weber. With the way the team’s contracts are structured, we are going to be in cap hell two or three seasons from now. If anything, I think this move adds pressure for Bergevin to land a legitimate top six forward now, because otherwise fans will always be on his back for dealing an icon like Subban.
- The clash between advanced stats and old school
I’ve seen a bunch of charts demonstrating why the Habs lost this trade and how we are doomed, etc. I’ve seen advanced stats gurus say that Weber was only decent this season. This is complete nonsense. I understand advanced stats and their purpose, but I am in no way a fan of them and this is the perfect example of why. They don’t paint the whole picture and if they say that a top 10 defender like Weber is only decent, there’s a pretty big disconnection between what’s really happening on the ice and the numbers appearing on a computer screen. Jonathan Toews wouldn’t be relieved to find out that Weber is out of his division if he was only ‘decent’.
This trade will probably be used to either elevate or denigrate the advanced stats argument. On one side you have the prototypical defenseman, a guy who plays physical and someone NHL GMs love, and on the other side you have a player who represents the new age and the new approach to hockey: possession.
- The Weber contract won’t handcuff us
One aspect that made people panic was Weber’s contract and the fact that he still has 10 years left on it. I’m not worried in the slightest about this facet of the deal. Weber’s contract was heavily front loaded in the first couple years of the deal, so that means that the last four years of his contract looks like this salary wise: 3,000,000$ and 1,000,000$ x 3. This gives us multiple options on how to deal with the contract.
- You trade Weber when he’s 38 to a team who needs to reach the cap floor like we’ve seen with Chris Pronger and Marc Savard
- Weber is put on LTIR if he declines heavily and we get rid of an headache. There are many loopholes in the CBA to pull this off, just look at how the Leafs made Stephane Robidas magically disappear off their cap.
- Montreal buys him out and the Predators are royally screwed due to the recapture penalty. This chart shows how much Montreal would have to pay versus what Nashville would.
At the end of the day, we save 1.143M on the cap and Geoff Molson saves salary long term. The way Bergevin uses that additional million gained from the Subban trade will come a long way in getting the acceptance of fans. If he justifies it by telling fans that the Subban trade was the difference between landing a Loui Eriksson, Andrew Ladd or Kyle Okposo or a David Perron or Troy Brouwer, it will make the pill a bit easier to swallow. That being said, Bergevin has made some questionable decisions in the past (as an example, trading Erik Cole for Michael Ryder to clear cap to then sign a washed up Daniel Briere) so I will wait-and-see what our GM does before praising him for the million or so we saved in this trade.
(Crazy scenario from my imagination: Montreal buys out Weber in 2022 when Subban is set to become a UFA and makes it impossible for the Preds to re-sign PK, and Bergevin brings him back and everyone lives happily ever after.)
- Subban must have really rubbed people the wrong way
PK said it best when he said that he believes in the saying “when there’s smoke, there’s fire.” Last season, the media was all over the Pacioretty vs Subban saga and how there was a rift in the locker room. If the team was such in a hurry to trade an elite defenseman before July 1st, there must be something we don’t know behind the scenes. This move when you look at it from any angle is a lateral one for Montreal. As I’ve said, they’re not better or worse after this trade.
That being said, if PK was truly disliked in the dressing room, this can only benefit the team short term. After the season the team had this year, they needed something to bring the team closer and this might be it. I won’t argue the logistic of trading our top skater because he was disliked in the dressing because that’s outside of my control and I don’t agree with it but I can see the motives that would lead to such a drastic decision.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Fans kept crying that Bergevin didn’t have the balls to make a big move, well, there you go. That’s probably the biggest move that this organization has made since trading Patrick Roy in the mid-90s. This move will define Bergevin’s legacy as a GM in Montreal; he’ll either trump Rejean Houle as the worst GM in Habs history, or be recognized for his giant cajones if the team wins the Cup.
However, despite my argument that this wasn’t a horrible trade, I would like to point out a few things this management has done wrongly ever since they were brought in. The way they treated Subban has been nothing short of unprofessional, disrespectful and classless. From Michel Therrien coming in and stating right off the bat that he’ll make Subban a better person, to him throwing him under the bus and calling him selfish, to not trusting his abilities and not using him on the penalty kill, even though he had proven that he could more than hold his own defensively while under Jacques Martin. Let’s not pretend that Marc Bergevin isn’t guilty either. He played his part by lowballing him and forcing him to sign that bridge deal (which ended up biting us in the ass), to almost going to arbitration until Geoff Molson stepped in and finally not manning up and admitting that he wanted PK gone from this team.
It is mind-blowing that, after the season we just experienced, Michel Therrien outlasted PK Subban in Montreal. If this decision was based on Max Pacioretty and Therrien not liking Subban, than I have lost faith in Marc Bergevin as the man to bring us to the promised land. Does PK have a show-off attitude? Maybe, but I’d still take him and his personality over Pacioretty if one of them had to be moved. Subban backs up his words and has always elevated his game when the stakes get higher, which is something that can’t be said about our captain.
As for Therrien, the guy should have been fired last December and Price is the only reason he wasn’t. How are we supposed to believe that a coach who couldn’t get the job done with Fleury, Crosby, Malkin, Hossa, Gonchar, etc. is going to win a Stanley Cup coaching this team? The truth is if Montreal ever wins their 25th Cup, it will be in spite of Therrien not because of him.
Thank you PK for your years of services with the Habs. Some dinosaurs can’t accept your personality but you’re not the problem, they are. The NHL is not at the same level of popularity of the NFL, MLB or NBA because they don’t know how to market hockey and their stars. They prefer vanilla players who answer with clichés rather than actually showing emotion and personality.
Thank you PK for being our most exciting player since Alex Kovalev, for your awesome celebrations after scoring goals, for the many memories you brought us in the Bleu, Blanc et Rouge. Like your very first games where you had to face Alex Ovechkin, Alex Semin, Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green in the playoffs, your countless end-to-end rushes and spinoramas, your last minute goal in 2011 to tie game 7 versus the Bruins and other clutch moments, your involvement in the community and the commercials you did.
Pernell Karl, merci pour tout.
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