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Antoine Mathieu
Rabid Habs
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10 Reasons the Habs will be Better this Year: Part Two
Wait! This article is the second part of Antoine Mathieu’s “10 Reasons the Habs will be Better this Year.” Make sure you read part one first!
5. The Team is Tougher and More Disciplined
One pattern that’s clear in the moves that were made this summer is that Marc Bergevin wanted a team that was harder to play against. It was very obvious at times last year that the team was too soft. After years of watching Jacques Martin’s definition of role players: Pyatt, Weber, Darche, Nokelainen and Palushaj, it was refreshing to see the team with role players that like to finish their checks: Prust, White, Weise, Weaver and Murray.
That being said, you could tell that the management has been targeting different types of players compared to the start of their tenure. After having a behemoth like Murray on the bottom pair, the team is now signing puck movers like Barberio and Redmond. Is it a sign that Bergevin is adapting to the changes around the league? Potentially, but the fact remains that last year the club could have used some players like White or Prust in the line-up to give it some life. Can you guess who the forward with the most hits was for us last season? It was…Byron with 112 hits.
That’s a serious problem if you ask me. A player that weighs less than 160 lbs shouldn’t be your forward with the most hits, it’s ridiculous. I believe Bergevin took notice of that problem and is one of the reasons why he claimed Mike Brown off waivers late last season. Brown is a dime a dozen player, but he made it obvious from the second he played with us that players like him were something the team was missing. He brought energy to a team that was lifeless on many nights last season.
At his year-end press conference, Bergevin hinted that with how difficult it is to acquire top six forwards, his current philosophy was to get as much offense as possible out of his bottom six. That explains why the team switched to guys like Byron and Flynn over players like Armstrong, Moen and Bourque. I understand that shift in mentality and fully agree with it, but as we’ve seen with last season’s edition of the team, when you do that, you risk sacrificing some elements like grit or size and at the end of the day, it may hurt you. I feel there has to be a balance between the two and acquiring a player like Shaw is the best of both worlds.
Shaw brings the same package that Prust did in his first year with us; the difference being that the former is a superior player and has a lot less mileage on his body given that he’s only 25-years-old. The two time Stanley Cup winner exemplifies what hockey people mean when they use the term ‘character’. Shaw is the type of player who would do anything to give his team the edge and he plays every game like it’s his last. The former Blackhawk lead Chicago last season in hits (148) and I expect him to be our most physical forward next year.
Here’s what his former coach, Joel Quenneville, had to say about him when the trade was announced:
The addition of Weber is another one that makes the club’s new direction very apparent. The Predators former captain is the perfect defenseman in the eyes of many, his combination of size, pure power, defensive prowess and lethal shot makes hockey fans around the world drool. Everyone who’s played against Weber will emphasize how strong he is and how tough it is to play against him. Shaw shared in a recent interview with NHL.com that Weber broke one of his ribs in the past following a battle for the puck.
Mark Scheifele of the Winnipeg Jets also highlighted how much of a physical presence the two time Olympian is in an interview with Sportsnet:
He’s just so strong. He can control a game. First off, his physicality is a huge asset of his. Every time he touches you, it feels like your bones are gonna crack — which is definitely a tough thing to deal with. He’s just a competitor,
Finally, to put the cherry on the sundae, Toews took the time when the trade was first announced to say that he was relieved that Weber was no longer in his division. When a player of Toews’ caliber says that about you, it shows how good of a player you are.
The signing of Farnham might have gone unnoticed to most fans, but that signature Bergevin move adds more weight to the perception that he wants the team to be tougher to play against. Despite not having a full season under his belt at the NHL level, Farnham already has quite the list of players who hate his guts, just ask Prust. After a few cups of coffee with the Penguins, the agitator got his first real chance at the NHL level with the Devils last season. The 27-year-old had decent production considering his limited ice time (8 goals in 50 GP while playing 9:19 minutes on average). I wouldn’t be surprised if Farnham earns himself a spot at the training camp and ends up being the team’s spare forward instead of Flynn and Matteau. Farnham brings a dimension that we could use and can’t be worse than Matteau, who’s simply awful.
One thing is certain, with Gallagher, Weber, Emelin, Shaw, Pateryn and possibly Farnham, teams won’t be looking forward to playing the Habs next year. Expect a lot of undisciplined penalties due to slashing or unsportsmanlike conduct in the upcoming months because our team is going to be a complete pain in the ass to face.
Which brings me to my next point; the Habs are going to be a much more disciplined team for a few reasons. First off, the Weber/Subban swap makes a huge difference in terms of discipline. Last season, Subban lead the team in minor penalties (30) and the next closest player to him was Emelin (23). Weber, on the other hand, only had 11 minor penalties last season, which – as you can do the math – is almost three times less, despite appearing in ten more games than PK. Weber even had a stretch last season of 21 games without taking a single penalty. Meanwhile, Subban’s longest stretch without taking a penalty was five games.
A lot of it can obviously be reputation based (like we’ve seen with Gallagher and his goalie interference calls) but at the end of the day, that’s a massive difference between the two. If we go even further, since the shortened season in 2012-13, Subban has the fifth most minor penalties in the NHL(125), while Weber sits at 98th (67). People can argue that Subban is a better defender than Weber, and the analytics back it up, but ultimately, if PK is always in the box, it doesn’t matter that he’s superior to Weber.
Another facet that the Habs improved on is the ability to draw penalties. The Canadiens already had two of the league’s top players in that statistic in Gallagher (18th in the league) and Desharnais (36th) but with the additions of Farnham (8th) and Shaw who draws a lot of calls in his own right, the Habs will most likely benefit from a few more calls going their way and with a re-energized PP, that could mean more wins for Nos Glorieux!
6: Montreal Finally Acquired a Top-Six Scoring Forward
It took two years but Bergevin finally replaced Vanek. Radulov is a bonafide top six talent and the chances of him panning out are a lot higher than our GM’s previous attempts (Parenteau and Semin). For many, the 30-year-old was the best player outside the NHL and there is a slight possibility that he’s now the top forward on the team. During his exile from the NHL, Radulov has arguably been a top three player in the KHL. In 2014-15, his 71 points in 46 GP earned him the KHL’s regular season MVP and that season he outscored the likes of Panarin, Kovalchuk and Shipashev. This season he saw a slight drop in production (65 points in 53 GP) but he was his team’s leading scorer and outscored his next teammate by 29 points!
Of course, impressive statistics in the KHL should be taken with a grain of salt. When NHL journeyman like Matt Ellison, Nigel Dawes and Dustin Boyd are among the top scorers of the league; the caliber can’t be that high. That being said, given the large sample of Radulov at the NHL level (102 points in 154 GP) and his play at the recent Olympics (6 points in 5 GP) at the highest level imaginable, it’s hard not to be optimistic about the former Rempart.
Unfortunately, the Radulov signing definitely comes with some risk and until he proves otherwise, there are some substantial question marks regarding his character. He’s bailed on his former team twice for the KHL and with the way his last NHL stint ended (the curfew scandal with Kostitsyn in the 2012 playoffs), it seems very hypocritical of the organization to trade Subban for ‘character’ issues (at least according to the media) and sign Radulov just a few days later.
The Russian forward made it very clear in his interview last July that he’s not the same individual that he was four years ago and that the birth of his son has really changed him as a person. Bergevin did him homework before hand and spoke to Weber and Fedorov (GM of Radulov’s KHL team) and they both endorsed the move. The Habs are taking some risk with this signing and are really counting on Radulov changing for the better, because if that’s the case, they get one of the most talented players on the planet essentially for free.
So what type of player is Radulov? He is very intense on the ice and he’s more of a pass-first forward. He is a high-end puck handler and he is a very capable goal scorer. He’s not afraid to get into traffic and he protects the puck very well with his body. I think he’s the perfect winger for Pacioretty and Galchenyuk.
I think it’s worth noting that this is a player that actually WANTED to come here. He turned down offers with more term or more money to come to Montreal because he likes the culture and thinks it was the best fit for him and his family. After having a star player like Okposo not even consider the Canadiens’ offer, it’s definitely refreshing to welcome a player that truly wants to play in this crazy, but passionate, market.
7: Improved Leadership
When your team has a collapse of the magnitude that the Habs went through last season, there is seriously something wrong with your nucleus of leaders in the dressing room. Last year’s fiasco made it evident to management that they might have misjudged the leadership core that they had after letting go of established leaders like Gionta, Gorges and Prust in favour of passing the torch to some of the team’s younger players like Pacioretty, Subban and Gallagher.
Injuries unquestionably played a role in the team’s epic downfall, but it doesn’t justify why no one really stepped up in terms of leadership or by showing the example on the ice (although to be fair, Subban did produce very well when the team was still fighting for a playoff spot). It became increasingly clear that Pacioretty was struggling in his new role as team captain and he didn’t get a ton of help from his assistants like Markov and Plekanec. It’d be unreasonable to put the blame on one individual for last season’s disaster, but it’s apparent that the whole team dropped the ball in the leadership department.
After putting so much focus on acquiring ‘character’ guys and the fact that this group is a solid one in terms of leadership, the past season was a huge slap in the face to management and what they had been preaching in the last few years. We saw who the real leaders and the phonies were. If the Canadiens don’t experience a season like the one they just had, I don’t think Bergevin would have ever pulled the trigger on a Subban trade. The Habs GM was convinced he had to change the look of the team and its leadership core and what better way to do it than acquire this year’s winner of the Mark Messier Leadership award: Shea Weber.
That’s without mentioning the additions of Shaw and Muller who will both bring leadership in their own ways. Shaw has been part of a winning culture in Chicago and he knows the sacrifices and punishments it takes to lift the Stanley Cup. Muller in his days as a player was a captain for two separate organizations (Montreal and New Jersey) and played a key role in 1993 to win our 24th Stanley Cup. I criticized the players but that doesn’t mean that Therrien and co were any better in terms of leadership, the recently named associate coach will provide some much needed help in that department.
8: Galchenyuk In, Desharnais Out
The most difficult thing that fans have had to endure during the Therrien era has been the handling of Galchenyuk in the last few years. When the Canadiens selected Galchenyuk in the 2012 draft, it was made clear that if he panned out, he would be our number one centre for years to come. You would think that a team would do anything to ensure that its third overall pick reaches his full potential, but nope, in the last two years Therrien has favoured an undrafted journeyman in Desharnais over the franchise’s highest pick since Doug Wickenheiser in 1980.
The handling of Galchenyuk was understandable in his first two seasons and, in my opinion, the right approach. It is quite normal for players who are still teenagers to start on the wing and become acclimated in their first seasons in the NHL. It makes the transition from juniors to the NHL a lot of easier and they have fewer responsibilities at wing than centre. Players like Seguin, Plekanec, Backes, and Lindholm all started their career on the wing before eventually switching back to their natural position.
The problem is that, for the last two seasons, it seemed like Galchenyuk returning to centre wasn’t something the management was considering in the near future. For some reason, management didn’t deem him ready to play down the middle. He proved he could play the position in 2013-14 when he played 12 games with Pacioretty and the two combined 29 points. During that stretch the team was also doing quite well and only lost once in regulation. Then the team went through a slump and Therrien inexplicably broke up the line and reunited Desharnais and Pacioretty. To make matters worse, the head coach justified the move by saying that Galchenyuk asked to be moved back to wing, which turned out to be debunked by the player himself.
The media made a big deal about how the youngster was going to play centre this year and how Therrien met him during the off-season to prepare him for his new duties and all that. Then the season starts and Galchenyuk is playing between Eller, a player who’s never been successful on the wing, and Semin, who took 24 days to finally sign a deal. Talk about setting up your franchise player for failure. The experiment shockingly (cough) sarcasm (cough) didn’t work and after 44 games, Galchenyuk was back on the wing, even though he had shown some very promising things at centre. The coaching staff certainly didn’t do him any favours, giving him 17-plus minutes of ice time on just four separates occasions during his first stint at centre last season.
Despite the 22-year-old looking like a completely different player out there than the previous seasons, it took an injury to Desharnais for Galchenyuk to FINALLY get a solid and lengthy look between the team’s best wingers in Gallagher and Pacioretty. To nobody’s surprise, except maybe Therrien, Galchenyuk exploded offensively and finished the last 19 games of the season as a point per game player.
Why did it take so long for Therrien to budge and do what fans had been demanding for literally TWO YEARS? What was the point in holding back your top prospect in favor of Desharnais? Why can the 29-year-old can have a brutal stretch like the one he had in 2013-14 (one assist in 19 games) and barely get punished, but if Galchenyuk goes pointless for two or three games, he gets demoted? This double-standard and clear favouritism has been hurting the Habs for far too long and it’s about time that Therrien finally saw the light in regards of Galchenyuk and Desharnais.
So what does Galchenyuk’s emergence at centre mean for the team going forward? For one, it changes the outlook of the team and its chances of winning a Cup drastically. A team with Desharnais as its number one centre has zero chance to win a Cup, it’s as simple as that. Your number one centre can’t be a 5-foot-6 centre that:
– can’t score (career high of 16 goals)
– can’t win physical battles
– can’t produce without playing with the team’s best players (production has been trending downwards every year as he’s given less leeway by the coaching staff)
– can’t defend
It just doesn’t make any sense. Galchenyuk as the team’s number one centre gives the Canadiens a much better chance to compete against the likes of Eichel (Buffalo), Barkov (Florida), Bergeron (Boston), Stamkos (Tampa Bay), etc. The former third overall pick has the potential to eclipse Koivu and be our best centre since Turgeon back in the ’90s.
9: Team Has More Finishers
When Bergevin held his press conference following the most talked about transaction in the NHL, he put a lot of emphasis on Weber’s goal scoring ability and how he was among the best in the league for defenders. It’s clear that the Habs, following the moves that they made this summer, have the potential to increase last season’s goal out put by a fair margin.
PLAYERS OUT (amount of goals since becoming Habs)
PK Subban: 59 goals in 355 GP (0.17 GPG)
Lars Eller: 64 goals in 358 GP (0.18 GPG)
Dale Weise: 27 goals in 152 GP (0.18 GPG)
PLAYERS IN (amount of goals since 2011-12)
Shea Weber: 86 goals in 361 GP (0.24 GPG)
Andrew Shaw: 70 goals in 322 GP (0.22 GPG)
Alex Radulov: 47 goals in 154 GP (0.31 GPG)
As you can clearly see, every acquisition has been a goal scoring upgrade for the team. Another way to look at it is by looking at our players’ line of work and see how many times they have hit the 20-goal mark in their careers:
Tomas Plekanec – 7 times
Max Pacioretty – 4 times
Shea Weber – 3 times
Alex Galchenyuk – 2 times
Brendan Gallagher – 1 time
Alex Radulov – 1 time
Andrew Shaw – 1 time
One of the team’s biggest problems during the Bergevin regime has been scoring and I feel the changes that were made this summer bring us closer to our ultimate goal: the Stanley Cup. One method I like to use to evaluate team’s offense is to compare the numbers of their six best forwards and combine the numbers.
Montreal last year looked like this:
Pacioretty (82 GP, 30 goals and 64 points)
Galchenyuk (82 GP, 30 goals and 56 points)
Plekanec (82 GP, 14 goals and 54 points)
Gallagher (53 GP, 19 goals and 40 points)
Desharnais (65 GP, 11 goals and 29 points)
Weise (56 GP, 14 goals and 26 points)
= 269 points
Replace Weise with Radulov (26 points versus 50-60 points) plus a healthy Gallagher and you have 40-50 more points, which brings us to 310-325 points from our six best forwards alone.
Chicago:
Kane (82 GP, 46 goals and 106 points)
Panarin (80 GP, 30 goals and 77 points)
Toews (80 GP, 28 goals and 58 points)
Anisimov (77 GP, 20 goals and 42 points)
Teravainen (78 GP, 13 goals and 35 points)
Shaw (78 GP, 14 goals and 34 points)
= 352 points
Washington:
Kuznetsov (82 GP, 20 goals and 77 points)
Ovechkin (79 GP, 50 goals and 71 points)
Backstrom (75 GP, 20 goals and 70 points)
Williams (82 GP, 22 goals and 52 points)
Oshie (80 GP, 26 goals and 51 points)
Johansson (74 GP, 17 goals and 46 points)
= 367 points
Pittsburgh:
Crosby (80 GP, 36 goals and 85 points)
Kessel (82 GP, 26 goals and 59 points)
Malkin (57 GP, 27 goals and 58 points)
Hornqvist (82 GP, 22 goals and 51 points)
Kunitz (80 GP, 17 goals and 40 points)
Cullen (82 GP, 17 goals and 32 points)
= 325 points
San Jose:
Thornton (82 GP, 19 goals and 82 points)
Pavelski (82 GP, 38 goals and 78 points)
Marleau (82 GP, 25 goals and 48 points)
Hertl (81 GP, 21 goals and 46 points)
Ward (79 GP, 21 goals and 43 points)
Couture (52 GP, 15 goals and 36 points)
= 333 points
When you simplify the numbers that way, it makes a bit more evident that Montreal is not that far off from the teams that are considered as the ‘elite’. The Habs might not have a superstar like Kane, Crosby or Ovechkin in their line-up, but this breakdown shows that the team is only one decent forward away from joining that upper echelon that consists of teams like Pittsburgh, Chicago or Washington.
10: Price’s Injury Is Now Behind Him
How does the saying go? Take one step back to take two step forwards? That’s probably the best way to look back on the season the team just had. Price was limited to just 12 games last year and we saw the difference between getting the best goaltending in the league to arguably some of the worst one in the span of weeks. The subject’s been beaten to death, but for what it’s worth, I don’t blame the management for not solving the goaltending situation last year. It was a very complex situation and with the uncertainty regarding Price’s recovery, it’s a tad dishonest to declare that Bergevin took the wrong approach by not trading picks for a player like Reimer. At the end of the day, Price wouldn’t have been ready for the playoffs and the Habs still would have likely missed the playoffs even with Reimer in net.
Stephane Waite confirmed a few weeks back that Price was now 100% and that’s very good news if you’re a Habs fan. It was obvious that the 2015 Hart Memorial Trophy winner had been nursing some nagging injuries in the last few years, but considering how crucial he is to Montreal’s success, he could never really take the time off to properly heal those injuries. He admitted that his MCL was injured in the 2014 playoffs when Kreider crashed into him during the opening game of the ECF.
The question that is on a lot minds is: after such a long layoff, will Price be 2014-15 dominant or should we expect him to regress? If we look at the last 20 years, Rinne, DiPietro, Hasek, Lehtonen and Backstrom all saw very limited action due to an injury. It’s hard to come up with a consensus on how much influence these injuries had on the players mentioned, since it’s always a case-by-case scenario. DiPietro and Backstrom were never the same following their injuries. Hasek continued to be elite, Lehtonen had his best seasons after his injury, and Rinne was a finalist for the Vezina the very next season.
It’s pointless right now to argue whether or not Price will pick things up where he left off, but one thing is certain, even if he’s just slightly above average, it will be a huge upgrade on what the team had last season with Condon, Scrivens and Tokarski splitting duties.
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