Puckstopshere

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Puckstopshere (Kukla's Korner)

Dan Girardi’s Corsi

1/1/2017

Dan Girardi of the New York Rangers has the worst Corsi in the NHL so far this season.  He is at -143, which is only one point worse than Nick Leddy of the New York Islanders.  Last year he also had the worst Corsi.  Girardi is consistently a bad player by puck possession metrics.  No other player has been worse when measured by attempted shots while the player is on the ice.  To make matters worse, Girardi is playing on a playoff calibre team and not one of the worst teams in the league.  Girardi is the number four player on the Rangers by ice time.  This makes him a second line defenceman with the team.  The fact that the Rangers are able to be a playoff team despite a lack of defensive depth that allows Dan Girardi to play regularly is quite a feat.  The Rangers are not a particularly good puck possession team.  The Rangers have the highest 5 on 5 shooting percentage in the NHL.  This is evidence that they may be overachieving.  The fact that they continue to play a poor puck possession player in Dan Girardi on their defence is a bad sign.  Girardi has a $5.5 million salary cap hit until 2020.  The Rangers are likely stuck with him for a while if they do not buy him out.  He hasn't been able to play a frontline position anymore and he is continuing to struggle as he falls further down in their depth chart.
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Puckstopshere (Kukla's Korner)

World Junior Championships: Preliminary Round

1/1/2017

The World Junior Hockey Championships are underway.  They are being played in Toronto, Ontario and Montreal, Quebec.  The ten teams in the tournament are divided into two five team groups that are playing a round robin, with the top four finishers moving onto the playoffs.  The preliminary round portion of the tournament completed today.  Here are the results: Group A:  This group played its games in Montreal. 1. Sweden.  The Swedish team dominated this group winning all four of its games and outscoring opponents 18-6.  Alexande Nylander (Buffalo prospect) leads the tournament and the Swedish team in points with nine.  Joel Eriksson Ek (Minnesota prospect) and Carl Grundstrom (Toronto prospect) are also chipping in offensively.  David Bernhardt (Philadelphia prospect) is leading their defence.  Felix Sandstrom (Philadelphia prospect) has performed strongly in goal.
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Puckstopshere (Kukla's Korner)

Islanders Three Goalie System

12/31/2016

I have been meaning to write a post about the crazy three goalie system the New York Islanders have been using.  They have Thomas Greiss, Jaroslav Halak and Jean Francois Berube.  This uses up three roster spots for goaltending.  That is a big cost for goalies.  The Islanders appear to have found a solution.  They have placed Jaroslav Halak on waivers. The crazy thing about this three goalie system is the fact that Berube is involved.  He appeared in seven games last season and has appeared in parts of four games so far this season.  That is not much use for a played holding down a roster spot.  It stops any development for Berube because he is not playing.  Should Berube not appear in 28 games this season, he will be an unrestricted free agent.  Thus Berube must appear in nearly half of the remaining games this season for that to not occur.  Is there any evidence that it would make sense to play him enough for that to happen?  He is clearly the number three goalie on the Islanders. Over the past couple of seasons, Thomas Greiss has played very well and had taken over as their number one goalie.  Jaroslav Halak has been the goalie who has played the most games for the Isles and been their number one man so far.  Halak has been a very good goalie when he is healthy.  Most recently he starred for Team Europe during the World Cup of Hockey.  However he hasn't been able to get on track in the three goalie system.  He has complained about lack of practice time as teams typically have two nets on the ice for three goalies to use.
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Puckstopshere (Kukla's Korner)

Dale Tallon Effectively The Florida GM Again?

12/15/2016

The Florida Panthers have been an example of how not to run a hockey team this season.  In May it was first announced that Dale Tallon was moved upstairs out of the Florida GM position.  Moving into the GM position was Tom Rowe who had a lengthy career as a minor league coach but limited experience in managerial positions.  A few days after than announcement, Rowe was officially named the Panthers GM.  Near the end of November, the Panthers abruptly fired coach Gerard Gallant and Rowe took over as coach.  The Panthers have two wins in eight tries since that ill-advised moved occurred. I argued that Rowe had been given enough rop to hand himself and he quickly has.  By bringing back Tallon to run the club, Florida has a proven successful general manager (though he is yet to officially get that title again).  Rowe was promoted beyond his experience level by becoming a general manager.  He may be above his talent level as an NHL head coach but at least he has successfully coached at some level in the past.  He may not last as the Florida Panther coach longterm, but by moving him out of the general manager position, Florida has a chance to return to sanity.  They may be able to right the ship. Florida is now the fourth team back behind a playoff berth.  They are nine points out of the final wildcard spot in the East Conference.  This little misadventure with GM and coach Tom Rowe may be the reason Florida misses the playoffs this year.  It seems they lack the coaching to climb back up into the race.
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Puckstopshere (Kukla's Korner)

AHL’s Top Team

12/12/2016

A little over two weeks ago the Milwaukee Admirals (Nashville minor league affiliate) moved into in first place in the AHL.  Milwaukee had a tough weekend losing to the Chicago Wolves (St Louis Blues affiliate) and the Grand Rapids Griffins (Detroit Red Wings affiliate).  This has allowed the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins (Pittsburgh affiliate) have moved into first place.  Wilkes-Barre/Scranton has a 16-8 record with three regulation tie points.  This gives them a .729 winning percentage. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton's success is largely due to keeping the puck out of their net.  They have the best goals against average in the AHL.  Tristan Jarry and Casey DeSmith have shared their goaltending.  They have .91 and .929 saves percentages respectively.  Their top scorers are Jake Guentzel who has 23 points in 19 AHL games.  He spent five games in the NHL this season scoring four points, so he may find himself called up again soon.  Behind him in scoring is Oskar Sundqvist who has 21 points in 22 games. The Penguins have the ability to hang onto first place if they keep their goals against average down.  They may find it tough to hold onto first place if their top scorer Jake Guentzel spend an extended period of time in the NHL and that's is a strong possibility.
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Puckstopshere (Kukla's Korner)

Calgary Leads The Pacific Divison

12/11/2016

It is interesting to notice that the Calgary Flames are in first place in the Pacific Division right now.  They have a record of 16-15 with two regulation tie points for 34 points.  They have played more games than San Jose, Anaheim and Edmonton who are all one point behind the Flames.  Thus their lead in the division is precarious. Calgary got off to a slow start.  The main reason they improved is an improvement in goaltending.  Brian Elliott was brought in in the off-season from St Louis to improve their goaltending.  He had produced some strong numbers in St Louis after some struggles in Ottawa.  He is back to struggling.  He has a .885 saves percentage and a 3.31 goals against average so far this year.  Likely those numbers will improve with time, but it is a reasonable question to ask how much of his success in St Louis came from the Blues defensive system and can he succeed without it.  Chad Johnson has taken over as the Flames goaltender.  He is new to the team having been acquired from Buffalo.  He has great numbers so far this year.  He has a .932 saves percentage and a 1.98 goals against average. Johnny Gaudreau is back from injury and has two points per game in his return.  He is the best offensive player on the Calgary Flames. Calgary is a much improved team as long as their goaltending holds up.  They are a probable playoff team, but their odds of keeping first place in the division are low.
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Puckstopshere (Kukla's Korner)

Masterton Trophy Leader

12/10/2016

The only trophy that I usually make a pick for that I have not made a pick yet is the Masterton Trophy.  I think the current leader is Craig Anderson of the Ottawa Senators.  He is having a solid season in goal while his wife is suffering from cancer.  He is posting a .924 saves percentage and a 2.46 goals against average.  That is a solid performance in trying times. I am uncertain that by the end of the year he will be the Masterton leader.  Bryan Bickell of the Carolina Hurricanes has been diagnosed with multiple sclerosis.  That is a bigger hardship to overcome since it is Bickell himself who is sick and not his wife.  The problem is Bickell has not played any games since the end of October and his diagnosis.  it isn't even clear that Anderson will be the best nominee from the Senators t the end of the season.  Clarke MacArthur is fighting to come back from a concussion that has kept him out of all but four games since last season.  The Masterton Trophy is a weird award because each team picks only one nominee even if they have multiple solid candidates.  Ottawa may have to select between Anderson and MacArthur assuming he makes a solid comeback for their nominee and both could be deserving. I think Craig Anderson is the best Masterton Trophy candidate at this point.  I am not sure if that matters.  Given their track record, the voters may give the award to Jaromir Jagr for still being in the NHL or Craig Cunningham who isn't in the NHL at all but had a heart attack in the AHL or some other illogical candidate.
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Puckstopshere (Kukla's Korner)

Hart and Vezina Trophy Leader

12/9/2016

Carey Price of the Montreal Canadiens had a slow start to the season due to injury.  As he played he moved into the award picture.  In mid-November I picked him as the Vezina Trophy leader.  Less than a week later he became my Hart Trophy leader.  Price has been passed in both of those races. Devan Dubnyk of the Minnesota Wild is playing better than Price is.  Dubnyk has a .946 saves percentage and a 1.65 GAA.  Both are numbers better than Price has.  Dubnyk has done so facing more shots than Price has. In 2015, Price and Dubnyk were both contenders for these awards.  Price won them both.  Dubnyk was a Vezina nominee and finished fourth in the Hart Trophy voting.  For Dubnyk this was seen as the likely high point in his career.  The season had been a comeback year after he had nearly played himself out of the NHL with Edmonton and Nashville.  Last year he had a more average season so this season is a bit of a surprise.  It isn't clear if Dubnyk can continue the season at this level.  The best guess is he will regress toward his established levels.  However right now he is the top goalie and most valuable player in the NHL so far this season.
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Puckstopshere (Kukla's Korner)

Blue Jackets Improvement

12/8/2016

The most improved team in the NHL this is the Columbus Blue Jackets.  Last season they finished second last in the East Conference with 76 points.  So far this year they are one point out of first place in the Metropolitan Division with games in hand.  They have a 15-9 record with four regulation tie points.  This is good for 34 points.  How has this team improved so much? The answer is largely due to goaltending and offence.  In goal, Sergei Bobrovsky has proven to be a top level goalie when he is healthy but doesn't always have successful healthy stretches.  Last season he put up a .908 saves percentage and a 2.75 goals against average.  Those numbers have improved tremendously this year.  He is posting a .930 saves percentage and a 2.03 GAA.  This is an improvement of over 26% percent in his goals against average. Offensively there were no significant scorers on the Blue Jackets.  Brandon Saad and Cam Atkinson tied for the team lead in points with only 53 points.  This season there are six Blue Jackets on pace to better that mark.  They are Cam Atkinson, Nick Foligno, Alexander Wennberg, Brandon Saad, Sam Gagner and Zach Werenski.  Gagner and Werenski are both newcomers to the team.  Werenski is a rookie and Gagner is a free agent signee from the Philadelphia Flyers.  Of the other players making significant offensive improvements, only Wennberg is young enough that he might be making a sustainable jump.  He is 22 years old.
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Puckstopshere (Kukla's Korner)

Potential For The NHL To Fix The ALL Star Fan Voting

12/7/2016

We have our first partial results in the fan voting for the 2017 NHL All Star Game.  The NHL is listing the leaders in the voting with no vote totals.  That is a rollback in the information they are giving to fans. This comes after last year when John Scott was voted into the All Star Game by fans because he had no All Star credentials but went on to win the All Star Game MVP.  The NHL tried to keep Scott out of the game.  He was traded to Montreal and sent to the minors before the game occurred.  However they could not avoid the backlash of fans and let Scott play and become the story of the game. This year they announced that players who get votes must be "bonafide NHLers" and will not allow votes for players in the minor leagues or on injured lists.  Nevertheless, Jack Eichel is listed as the fourth highest vote getter in the Atlantic Division when he spent some of the voting period so far on the injured list.  Effectively this appears to mean that the NHL will replace any player who they don't want in the All Star Game and they won't tell us how many votes anyone has so they can manipulate this without fans being aware how large a margin of support existed for the player they pulled from the voting. This is a pattern with the NHL.  They refuse to give fans information that they want such as salary cap information because it could make the NHL look bad.  All Star Game votes are one more facet of the game that the NHL has decided fans do not need to know.
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Puckstopshere (Kukla's Korner)

Top Corsi Team

12/6/2016

The team leading the NHL in attempted shots at 5 on 5 is the Boston Bruins.  They are +180 so far this season.  Their record of 15-11 with one regulation tie point puts them in third place in the Atlantic Division.  It is a good record, but not a league leading one. They are a team that barely missed the playoffs last season.  Probably they were good enough that they should have made them last year.  Has Boston significantly improved since last year?  Their top line of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak has been a very dominant line controlling the puck both offensively and defensively.  The vast majority of Boston's positive Corsi comes from that line alone.  Marchand leads the league with a +154 personal Corsi.   Boston's Corsi success is largely due to the one line. Boston dominates the puck when their best line is on the ice and they manage to neutralize their opponents top line at the same time.  Their problem is their other lines are not anything special when it comes to puck possession.  When they get beaten it is the other lines that get beaten. Boston is an improved team.  In part their improvement is due to underachieving last year.  They have the most successful puck possession line in the NHL driving their Corsi success.  With a bit more depth this Boston team could make a Stanley Cup run.
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Puckstopshere (Kukla's Korner)

Lowest Attendance

12/5/2016

Ten days ago, I wrote that the Carolina Hurricanes are the lowest paid team (by salary cap hit).  This is a financial necessity for this team.  They also have the lowest attendance in the NHL.  They are averaging 10,969 per home game.  This is almost 1500 people per game less than the second worst New York Islanders. Carolina has problems.  Peter Karmanos is 73 years old and his sons show no interest in running the team.  In fact they have sued their father for over $100 million that he failed to put into their trusts.  This is money that Karmanos has used largely to run the hockey team.  As a result, Karmanos wants to sell the team and there is little appetite to keep the team in Carolina. The NHL has not had a team that is a former Stanley Cup winner fold or move since the Great Depression.  It looks like Carolina could break that record.  They are the 2006 Stanley Cup champions.  This was the first season after a season lost to a lockout.  An artificially low salary cap prevented any really strong teams from existing.  The Carolina team that won the 2006 Stanley Cup missed the playoffs in 2007.  They were unable to gain any sustained momentum from their win. The Carolina Hurricanes will likely last as long as Peter Karmanos lasts running them.  They have not been able to draw fans.  There is little appetite for another owner to keep the team in the state.  Likely they will move when he sells or when he dies and a sale is forced.  Their low attendance and low payroll has put the team two points out of last place in the East Conference.  There is little positive going on here.
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Puckstopshere (Kukla's Korner)

AHL’s Top Scorer

12/4/2016

Brendan Leipsic of the Toronto Marlies (Maple Leaf affiliate) was the AHL top scorer for the month of November.  Now that we have moved into December, there is a new AHL top scorer in Brad Hunt of the Chicago Wolves (St Louis Blues affiliate).  Brad Hunt has 26 points in 22 games.  This is two points ahead of Leipsic and other players who are tied with him. Hunt is a defenceman.  It is rare that defencemen lead any league in scoring.  He is 28 years old, which puts him on the old side of being an NHL prospect.  He spent parts of three NHL seasons playing for the Edmonton Oilers scoring three points in 21 games but has largely been a minor pro player.  Last year, he put up 41 points in 57 games with the Bakersfield Condors (Edmonton Oiler affiliate).  He has never scored at point per game rate in his four complete AHL seasons with a 51 point career best.  He never scored at point per game rate in his four college seasons at Bemidji State University or in his two seasons of tier two junior with the Burnaby Express of the BCJHL.  It is unlikely that he suddenly became a top scorer at age 28 when he has never been one at any significant level in his life. Hunt is signed with St Louis largely to give them veteran experience with their minor league affiliate, the Chicago Wolves.  It was not expected that he would play in the NHL this season.  However it was also not expected that he would lead the AHL in scoring.  Thus an NHL call up is a possibility.  With or without an NHL call up, Brad Hunt leading the AHL in scoring all season is unlikely he has no track record as a top scorer.
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Puckstopshere (Kukla's Korner)

Worst Corsi Player

12/4/2016

We are past the quarter pole in the season and it is interesting to look at the best and worst players at this point by some measures.  One interesting measure of players is Corsi or attempted shots while a given player is on the ice in 5 on 5 situations.  The worst Corsi so far this season is a -128 that belongs to Alex Goligoski of the Arizona Coyotes.  Arizona is the worst team by team Corsi at -201.  Since Corsi is a tam dependent statistic it isn't surprising that the worst player is on the worst team.  Goligoski is second in ice time on the Coyotes.  The only player with more ice time is Oliver Ekman-Larsson.  While Ekman-Larsson has the ability to drive puck possession in the other direction despite weak teammates, Goligoski doesn't. Goligoski is not the weakest puck possession player in the league.  On a strong team he would post okay puck possession numbers.  In this case his worst Corsi shows the tough situation that he plays in.  Goligoski isn't a good enough player to succeed with a lot of ice time on a team as weak as Arizona.  Few players are.  If Arizona had a few such players they wouldn't be as weak a team.  His Corsi numbers show that Arizona is failing and Alex Goligoski is not a good enough player to turn the tide.
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Puckstopshere (Kukla's Korner)

A Rising Scorer

12/1/2016

One player who is clearly rising as an offensive player is Brandon Saad of the Columbus Blue Jackets.  Last season he had a career best 31 goals and 53 points and this season he is on pace to beat that easily.  He has 17 points in his 21 games to date.  What makes this number more impressive is the fact that he has scored all of those points at even strength.  When he gets power play time, he plays on the second unit in Columbus.  Saad is the even strength scoring leader in Columbus.  Only four players in the league have more even strength points so far this season.  They are Connor McDavid, Nikita Kucherov, Mark Schiefele and Schiefele's linemate Nikolaj Ehlers.  That is a lofty group for Saad to be behind.  It is only a matter of time before Columbus begins to give Saad more power play time and when that happens look for his point total to take off.  Brandon Saad is clearly a scorer on the rise.
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Puckstopshere (Kukla's Korner)

Panarin’s Zone Starts

11/29/2016

Artemi Panarin of the Chicago Blackhawks has an interesting usage.  He is the player with the largest number of excess offensive zone starts.  These are times he is on the ice for an offensive face off minus the times he is on the ice for a defensive zone faceoff.  As a result of this preferable offensive usage, he is the ninth highest scorer in the NHL with 21 points. This is an admission that Panarin has significant offensive value but limited defensive value.  This ability can be maximized by playing him in offensive situations and not when it is a defensive situation.  This usage has probably been worth a few points this season on Panarin's totals.  This shows that while Panarin may be a top ten scorer in the NHL he has a ways to go to be a top ten player.
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Puckstopshere (Kukla's Korner)

Florida Fires Coach Gerard Gallant

11/28/2016

Yesterday the Florida Panthers fired their head coach Gerard Gallant.  He was in his third year as Florida's coach.  Last year he was a nominee for the Jack Adams Trophy as coach of the year and only 22 games later he finds himself fired.  It's not as if the Panthers had done poorly this year.  Despite injuries they had a record of 12-12 with one regulation tie point.  There is a reasonable expectation that had they stayed the course they might be a playoff team.  After all, they are currently only 2 points behind the last playoff spot in the East Conference. Florida is quickly becoming a poorly run franchise.  Vinny Viola the Florida Panthers owner has interfered in the running of the franchise.  Florida had a strong season last year winning the Atlantic Division.  Nevertheless the GM who built the team - Dale Tallon was pushed upstairs so that Viola's favored GM Tom Rowe could be brought in as GM.  Rowe has a questionable record for a GM, he is a longtime coach and assistant coach at levels below the NHL.  I assumed he would be Dale Tallon's puppet as Tallon phased into retirement.  It is clear now that he is management's puppet.  Tallon is a fall guy as Viola brings in people he can control.  Rowe is going to serve as coach and general manager for the rest of the season.  He has been given enough rope that he can hang himself in the rest of the season.  Whether or not that matters to ownership is the question.
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Puckstopshere (Kukla's Korner)

AHL’s Top Team

11/27/2016

Last weekend the Tucson Roadrunners (Arizona Coyotes farm team) had moved into first place in the AHL.  They appear to have benefitted from playing fewer games than the Eastern teams and were probably overachieving.  Their game last Saturday was postponed when captain and top scorer at the time Craig Cunningham collapsed before their game due to an apparent heart attack.  This puts the Roadrunners in a tough situation.  It is hard to return to hockey and succeed given the emotional toll and the lack of a top player.  They lost their first game back to the Stockton Heat (Calgary Flames affiliate) 3-2 and dropped from first place. Taking over as the league leader is the Milwaukee Admirals (Nashville Predator affiliate).  Milwaukee has a 12-5 record with three regulation tie points.  This gives them a .794 winning percentage and first place.  They have points in their last eleven games with nine wins and two regulation ties.  Milwaukee is a relatively low scoring team.  Their 49 goals puts them behind most teams with similar games played.  Their success has been from preventing goals.  41 goals against is a low total for a team with 17 games played.  Juuse Saros has been a top goaltender with a league leading 1.59 GAA and .945 saves percentage.  Much of their success comes from his play.  This is a precarious position for an AHL team.  What happens if he gets called up to the NHL? Milwaukee may not be a high enough scoring team to hold onto the first overall spot in the AHL for too long.  They have played very well lately and are on a good streak with points in their last 11 games.  In the meantime, Tucson will probably fall in the standings with their problems with the loss of their captain.
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Puckstopshere (Kukla's Korner)

Top Rookie At The Quarter Pole

11/26/2016

There is a solid crop of rookies this season.  They are doing a good job of creating a competitive race for the Calder Trophy.  About two and a half weeks ago I reported that Patrik Laine of the Winnipeg Jets had taken the lead as at that time he was the NHL goal scoring leader.  He had taken the lead from Zach Werenski of the Columbus Blue Jackets.  Laine has cooled recently.  He has one goal in the last two and a half weeks and is dropping in the overall scoring race.  Thus Zach Werenski has taken the rookie lead this season.  Werenski has 16 points which makes him the fourth highest scoring defenceman in the NHL.  He is only two points behind Laine despite being a defenceman.  Werenski leads his Blue Jacket team in total ice time and is a big part of the reason that Columbus would make the playoffs if the season ended right now.  In a year where top draft picks Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine are getting much of the rookie press, I think a relatively unheralded Columbus defenceman has been the best rookie so far.
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Puckstopshere (Kukla's Korner)

Highest Paid Team

11/24/2016

The highest paid team in the NHL so far this season according to its salary cap hit (from capfriendly.com) is the Detroit Red Wings.  They have a projected salary cap hit of $79.68 million this season.  This is despite the fact that the NHL salary cap this season is $73.0 million.  They are using longterm injured reserve to go $6.68 million over the cap.  Johan Franzen, Darren Helm and Joe Vitale are all on the longterm injured reserve.  This allows the Red Wings to go nearly $9 million above the salary cap.  Franzen is the most disturbing of these players.  He played two games last season and will probably never play another NHL game.  He is out with "concussion like symptoms" and will remain that way until 2020.  It has been an inequity in the salary cap that teams can hide bad contracts by leaving a player on the long-term injured reserve for years while they no longer try to play in the NHL.  Johan Franzen is a clear case of this. Salary-wise it gets worse for the Red Wings.  They also signed Pavel Datsyuk who has a $7.5 million salary cap hit.  They have been fortunate to trade his salary to Arizona. 
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